2025 Q3 Research Report

The Next Phase of Crypto Markets

In Q3, the market structure finally caught up: policy, products, and financial plumbing faced challenges, and the “treasury trade” ran into its first real stress test. As the dust settled, a clearer picture began to emerge of where institutional capital is actually comfortable taking risk and where it isn’t. We hope you enjoy this edition of SDM’s Q3 Market Report, where we break down the key trends, flows, and inflection points shaping digital asset markets this quarter.

Headlines at a Glance

The Fed turns dovish: September’s first rate cut since 2020 put $7T in idle cash back in motion.

Gold hits records: hedge demand stayed sticky even as equities rallied.

ETH > BTC: 72% quarterly surge driven by ETF inflows and treasury adoption.

SOL goes institutional: CME lists options, Forward raises a $1.65B Solana treasury.

Regulators align: SEC and CFTC joint statement legitimizes U.S. spot-crypto trading; UK lifts retail ban on cETNs; MiCA rules finalized.

Treasury trade turns tactical: one in four listed DATs now trade below NAV, with discounts replacing premia.

Macro & Market Recap

Lower yields reignited the risk bid. Tech, gold, and digital assets climbed together as the Fed’s easing cycle began. The soft-landing narrative held, but the real story was structural: ETFs tightened plumbing, regulators cleared the road, and institutions re-engaged across the stack.

Q3 Signals We’re Watching

Policy shift

Fed begins rate-cut cycle; inflation sticky but trending lower.

ETF flows

ETH ETF inflows +208 % QoQ; BTC –4 %; total market cap >$4 T.

Institutional access

401(k) crypto inclusion planned; Nasdaq files for tokenized equities.

Regulatory clarity

SEC/CFTC permit spot products on registered venues.

APAC activity

HK Stablecoin Ordinance in effect; MiCA transitional period underway.

ETF Flow Snapshot

Structure Replaced Speculation

BTC

Q3 Flow (USD)

$8.8 B (+7 %)

Avg Daily Net Flow

$137 M (–4 %)

Share of Cumulative AUM

$62.8 B

Trend

BTC steady

ETH

Q3 Flow (USD)

$9.6 B (+243 %)

Avg Daily Net Flow

$150 M (+208 %)

Share of Cumulative AUM

$14.9 B

Trend

ETH accelerating — now ~109 % of BTC daily pace

Digital Asset Treasuries

The Compression Phase

After two years of one-way issuance, listed treasuries met valuation gravity. Average NAV multiples fell from 3.76× (April) to 2.8× (mid-Sept) as funding costs rose and investors demanded per-share efficiency.

NAKA from

959% to -9%

ASST from

485% to 44%

MTPLF from

510% to 37%

CEP from

120% to 53%

MSTR from

86% to 39%

SMLR from

-3% to -27%

BRR from

37% to 26%

The Debasement Trade Returns

Persistent deficits, cheaper money, and a softer dollar have revived the “own what can’t be printed” thesis. Gold, Bitcoin, and growth equities each benefited as real yields fell. Since 2020: BTC +1 600 %, gold +148 %, S&P +106 %, USD –20 %. This cycle, liquidity is flowing through ETFs and structured wrappers — not speculative excess.

Crypto is no longer reacting to macro; it’s part of it. The Q3 2025 Report tracks how rate cuts, ETF maturity, and regulatory convergence turned digital assets into a core liquidity trade.

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