April 11, 2024

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Next FOMC meeting: May 1st 2024

  • Probability of a 25bps ease → 3%
  • Probability of a 0bps hike → 97%

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The News Room

Uniswap Faces SEC Enforcement Action, CEO Vows to Fight Charges

Uniswap has disclosed receiving a Wells notice from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), signaling the regulator's intent to pursue enforcement action for operating as an unregistered securities broker and exchange, causing its native token, UNI, to drop 9.5%. CEO Hayden Adams expressed readiness to contest the SEC's charges, referencing a favorable ruling in a similar case against Coinbase as a positive precedent. Uniswap contends that it does not fit the SEC's definition of an exchange and that the tokens it facilitates are not inherently securities, challenging the SEC's jurisdiction without explicit congressional authority. The company views the SEC's actions as part of a broader political effort against leading blockchain technology developers and is prepared for a potentially long legal battle, emphasizing the importance of DeFi and financial innovation.

El Salvador Launches First Tokenized Debt Issue for Hilton Hotel, Expanding Investment Opportunities

Bitfinex Securities El Salvador S.A. de C.V. is introducing a tokenized debt issue for the development of a Hampton by Hilton hotel complex at El Salvador International Airport, marking the first tokenized asset under El Salvador's new Digital Asset Securities Law. This initiative, aimed at raising $6.25 million with a 10% annual coupon over five years, signifies a major step in diversifying and developing El Salvador's capital market and introducing new investment opportunities. The debt, issued by Inversiones Laguardia S.A. de C.V., will be tokenized on the Liquid Network and traded against U.S. dollars and Tether’s USDT, starting May 13 with a minimum investment of $1,000. This move follows El Salvador's adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender and is expected to create up to 5,000 jobs, highlighting the country's commitment to leveraging digital assets for economic development.

CF Benchmarks Introduces Bitcoin Volatility Index, Expanding Market Insight Tools

UK-based CF Benchmarks has unveiled its Bitcoin Volatility Index, designed to track and trade 30-day forward-looking Bitcoin price volatility, incorporating data from Bitcoin options contracts on the CME. This FCA-regulated product includes the real-time BVX and the daily settlement BVXS indices, offering a comprehensive measure of market volatility and investor sentiment. Sui Chung, CEO of CF Benchmarks, highlighted the importance of volatility indices in reflecting market risk appetite and sentiment. The indices aim to serve as essential tools for understanding Bitcoin volatility, akin to their Bitcoin Reference Rate for spot Bitcoin, and comply with UK Benchmarks Regulation, enabling crypto market participants to trade volatility similar to other financial markets.

Trading Desk Insights

Bitcoin has bounced back, logging a 6% recovery from the lows seen in the wake of a less-than-stellar CPI report. The PPI figures have provided further momentum, nudging prices upward. With Bitcoin's halving event on the horizon, there's increased speculation around networks and ecosystem tokens such as STX, RUNE, and ORDI, which traders are eyeing for potential gains. However, the broader macroeconomic climate is keeping a lid on crypto's potential upside, especially considering the recent uptick in the 10-year yield and the US dollar index, which could exert continued pressure on risk assets.

ETF flows have swung back into positive terrain, with net inflows hitting $123.7 million and Grayscale reporting a record low in outflows at $17.5 million—a bullish signal for the market.

Activity on blockchain networks has seen a significant uptick, with daily active addresses on Base spiking by 474% over the last three months. Solana and Near Protocol have also seen substantial growth, at 87% and 28%, respectively. Despite Solana's challenges with failed transactions, its total value locked (TVL) has surged 3.3x year-to-date to $4.6 billion.

Uniswap's token took a hit, dropping over 16% following a Wells notice from the SEC. CEO Hayden Adams announced on social media that the company is prepared to contest the SEC's claims in court.

On the equities front, stock futures hovered around the breakeven point as investors digested the latest inflation data. The March producer price index came in lower than expected, offering some solace after Wednesday's sell-off triggered by unexpected inflation hikes. The earnings season is kicking off, with major banks like JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup slated to release their reports shortly.

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank has maintained interest rates steady for the fifth consecutive meeting, with market participants anticipating a rate cut in June, based on LSEG data.

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