April 15, 2025

Trading Desk Insights

BTC is showing dominance as it continues to outperform equities, flexing relative strength in this choppy macro backdrop. Broader crypto’s getting its legs back under it — alts have posted solid 7-day gains, with some longer-tail names ripping. BTC pushed up to $86.5K today, highest print since early April, and dominance is pushing 64%, a level we haven’t seen since Jan 2021. Clear sign that the market's appetite for altcoin risk is fading. BTC remains the benchmark.

Trade war chatter is also heating up. China’s drawing a hard line, no talks with the US unless there's “respect” for Beijing. Meanwhile, Canada’s stepping in with a six-month tariff relief window on select US imports. Trump went live on Fox saying tariff revenues could replace income taxes entirely.

Last week was wild for rates — 10Y Treasury yields ripped over 50bps. Trump’s 90-day tariff pause gave yields a short breather, but by Friday we were back above 4.6%. Not a great setup for risk assets if yields keep climbing.

All eyes are on Powell. Markets are holding their breath for Powell on Wednesday. Between the trade war and rising recession chatter, traders are watching for any hint the Fed might be forced to cut sooner than expected.

The News Room

Senator says Florida will lead US efforts to hold Bitcoin as a strategic reserve

​Florida is positioning itself at the forefront of U.S. efforts to incorporate Bitcoin into state financial reserves. Senator Joe Gruters introduced Bill S0550, which would allow the state's Chief Financial Officer to allocate up to 10% of assets from key funds, including pension systems, into Bitcoin investments. Gruters emphasized that this move aligns with a broader economic strategy focused on inflation protection and fiscal autonomy. He also noted that the legislation reflects Florida's commitment to becoming a national hub for Bitcoin adoption and financial sovereignty. This initiative follows similar actions by other states, such as Wisconsin and Michigan, which have begun integrating Bitcoin into their investment portfolios.

Canadian watchdog greenlights spot Solana ETFs with staking rewards

On April 14, 2025, the Ontario Securities Commission approved the launch of the world's first spot Solana (SOL) exchange-traded funds (ETFs), set to debut on April 16. Issued by Purpose Investments, Evolve ETFs, CI Global Asset Management, and 3iQ, these ETFs will hold SOL tokens directly and incorporate staking to generate rewards for investors. This approach aims to enhance returns and offset management fees, potentially offering higher yields than Ethereum-based products due to Solana's elevated staking rewards. Canada's move reinforces its position as a leader in crypto ETF innovation, contrasting with the U.S., where spot altcoin ETFs like Solana remain unapproved.

DeFi crypto lending surpasses $19 billion in 2024, nearly doubling CeFi counterpart

In 2024, decentralized finance (DeFi) crypto lending surged to $19.1 billion in open borrows by Q4, nearly doubling the $11 billion recorded by centralized finance (CeFi) platforms, according to a Galaxy report. This marks a 959% increase from late 2022, driven by user preference for permissionless, transparent, and resilient DeFi protocols. CeFi lending, dominated by Tether, Galaxy, and Ledn, accounted for $9.9 billion, representing 27% of the total crypto lending market when including collateralized debt position (CDP) stablecoins. The overall crypto lending market, excluding CDP stablecoins, stood at approximately $30 billion at the end of 2024, down 43% from its $64.4 billion peak in late 2021, reflecting a shift in capital flows and risk frameworks within the crypto economy.​

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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.

Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.

The information on which the analysis is based has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable such as, for example, the company’s financial statements filed with a regulator, company website, company white paper, pitchbook and any other sources. While Secure Digital Markets has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable, it does not perform an audit or seek independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives.

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