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Bitcoin extended its winning streak to five days, rallying on the back of macro tailwinds after Trump clarified he has no intention of removing Fed Chair Jerome Powell and hinted at dialing back the steep 145% tariffs on Chinese imports, calling them “very high” and saying they’ll “come down substantially.” Risk assets caught a bid across the board—Tesla jumped 7% after Elon Musk said he’ll scale back time spent on Dogecoin, further fueling positive sentiment during the company’s earnings call.
BTC has clawed back over half its losses since Inauguration Day and now sits just shy of breakeven YTD, recently surpassing Google to become the fifth-largest asset globally with a market cap of $1.9 trillion. Its outperformance versus U.S. equities is reinforcing the digital gold narrative, as Bitcoin continues to show signs of decoupling from traditional markets with a growing appeal as both a tech and store-of-value play.
Flows are speaking volumes—spot BTC ETFs pulled in $913 million yesterday alone, the strongest daily inflow since January 17th, bringing the 3-day tally to a staggering $1.5 billion. The rally has put short sellers on the defensive, with over $600 million in liquidations in the last 24 hours, more than double the previous session, as forced buying added fuel to the move higher.
Momentum is bleeding into the broader crypto complex—volume and open interest are on the rise, and funding rates have flipped bullish after weeks of chop. Altcoins are ripping back to life: SOL has surged 60% off the lows, while SUI and TAO posted explosive gains of 82% and 103%, respectively.
The News Room
Bitcoin poised for breakout as US Term Premium hits 12-Year high – StanChart
Standard Chartered's global head of crypto research, Geoffrey Kendrick, asserts that Bitcoin remains undervalued amid escalating systemic risks tied to U.S. fiscal uncertainty and political pressure on the Federal Reserve. He highlights the U.S. 10-year term premium reaching a 12-year high as a signal of mounting concerns over inflation, debt issuance, and potential threats to Fed independence. Kendrick emphasizes that Bitcoin's role as a hedge against both private-sector collapses and public-sector credibility shocks becomes more pronounced during such macro stress events. Despite recent short-term volatility, he reaffirms Standard Chartered's long-term price forecast for Bitcoin, projecting it to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025 and $500,000 by 2028, driven by macroeconomic pressures and improved structural access through spot ETFs and a maturing derivatives market .
Global M2 money supply shifted by 90 days predicts Bitcoin price but with elastic relationship
BTC often lags behind changes in global liquidity by approximately 90 days. While this pattern suggests that increases in money supply can precede Bitcoin price surges, the correlation is not consistent. Since 2021, the 180-day rolling correlation between Bitcoin and a forward-shifted global M2 index has fluctuated between +0.95 and –0.90, indicating that other factors—such as ETF inflows, macroeconomic policy shifts, and crypto-specific events—also significantly influence Bitcoin's price movements. For instance, in Q1 2024, Bitcoin's price rose sharply due to spot-ETF approvals and halving anticipation, despite minimal changes in global M2. This variability underscores the complexity of predicting Bitcoin's price based solely on global liquidity trends .
Cantor Fitzgerald spearheads $3B move into Bitcoin with Tether, SoftBank, and Bitfinex
Cantor Fitzgerald, in collaboration with Tether, SoftBank, and Bitfinex, has launched a $3.6 billion Bitcoin investment venture named Twenty One Capital. This initiative, led by Brandon Lutnick, aims to emulate MicroStrategy's strategy by starting with 42,000 BTC, making it the third-largest corporate Bitcoin holder globally. The venture is structured through a reverse merger with Cantor Equity Partners and plans to raise an additional $585 million via convertible bonds and private equity to acquire more Bitcoin. Jack Mallers, founder of the Bitcoin platform Strike, will serve as CEO. This move signifies a significant institutional push into Bitcoin, reflecting growing confidence in the cryptocurrency amid a more favorable regulatory environment under the current U.S. administration.
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Disclaimer
This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
The information on which the analysis is based has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable such as, for example, the company’s financial statements filed with a regulator, company website, company white paper, pitchbook and any other sources. While Secure Digital Markets has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable, it does not perform an audit or seek independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives.
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Crypto and/or digital currencies involve substantial risk, are speculative in nature and may not perform as expected. Many digital currency platforms are not subject to regulatory supervision, unlike regulated exchanges. Some platforms may commingle customer assets in shared accounts and provide inadequate custody, which may affect whether or how investors can withdraw their currency and/or subject them to money laundering. Digital currencies may be vulnerable to hacks and cyber fraud as well as significant volatility and price swings.
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