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Risk assets pulled back on Thursday after China confirmed there are no active trade negotiations with the U.S., dampening investor sentiment that had been buoyed earlier by President Trump’s willingness to adopt a less combative tone toward Beijing. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comment that the U.S. sees “an opportunity for a big deal” now appears overly optimistic in light of recent developments.
The pullback also reflects some profit-taking after BTC rallied nearly 30% from early April lows. Despite the pause, the broader tone remains constructive. Traders are positioning for further upside, with notable flows into June $110K calls on BTC while simultaneously offloading longer-dated options—indicative of near-term conviction. IBIT ETF options now account for around 55% of Deribit’s BTC open interest, signaling a clear shift as TradFi ramps up BTC exposure through listed derivatives.
Bitcoin continues to cement its role as a macro asset, increasingly seen as a hedge and diversifier. Its correlation with equities has weakened notably, enhancing its appeal as a safe-haven asset amid market turbulence. The ETF channel tells the story—$917 million of inflows yesterday alone brings the two-day total to $1.8 billion, with institutional allocators and sovereign funds quietly building exposure.
In FX, USD/JPY is flirting with a key support level. The pair remains inversely correlated with gold, which has been catching a bid on geopolitical tailwinds and persistent inflation risks. That inverse setup offers tactical hedging opportunities: a weaker dollar-yen may fuel further strength in gold, creating offsets in multi-asset portfolios.
Lastly, CME’s announcement of XRP futures adds fuel to the narrative that a spot XRP ETF may not be far behind—a development traders will be watching closely.
The News Room
FBI reports $9.3 billion in US targeted crypto scams as elderly hit hardest
The FBI's 2024 Internet Crime Report reveals a significant surge in cryptocurrency-related scams, with reported losses reaching $9.3 billion—nearly double the previous year's figure. A substantial portion of these losses stemmed from investment frauds, notably "pig butchering" schemes, where scammers build fake emotional relationships to lure victims into fraudulent crypto investments. Elderly individuals were disproportionately affected, filing over 33,000 complaints and accounting for more than $2.8 billion in losses, averaging approximately $83,000 per victim. To combat this growing threat, the FBI has initiated programs like Operation Level Up, aiming to identify and assist victims, resulting in the prevention or recovery of around $285 million in losses.
Official Trump memecoin surges 50% as President to hold dinner with TRUMP token holders investing over $395k
The $TRUMP memecoin surged over 60% after President Donald Trump announced a private gala dinner on May 22 for the top 220 holders of the token, to be held at the Trump National Golf Club in Washington, D.C. The top 25 investors will also receive access to a VIP reception and a special tour with the president. This initiative is part of Trump's broader involvement in cryptocurrency ventures, including launching the exchange World Liberty Financial and expanding Trump Media & Technology Group’s crypto finance operations. While the event has rejuvenated investor interest, it has also sparked criticism from ethics watchdogs, who argue that it exemplifies the use of presidential office for personal financial gain
Russia to launch national crypto exchange limited to high net-worth investors
Russia is set to launch a state-backed cryptocurrency exchange exclusively for high-net-worth individuals, as part of a pilot program aimed at regulating digital asset transactions and facilitating their use in cross-border trade. The platform will operate within an experimental legal framework established in September 2024, allowing foreign trade participants to settle transactions via crypto without legalizing crypto payments within Russia’s domestic economy. Eligibility is limited to investors classified as “highly qualified,” including individuals with significant holdings in securities or deposits exceeding 100 million rubles, or those with annual incomes above 50 million rubles. The initiative seeks to bring crypto activity under regulatory oversight, moving it out of informal markets. Authorities are still finalizing the precise qualification criteria, with ongoing discussions involving legislators’ input. The pilot exchange is expected to become operational in at least six months, utilizing existing infrastructure and potentially licensing new trading venues that meet strict regulatory conditions.
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
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