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The global market took a hit on Friday after China decided to slap new tariffs on U.S. goods, fueling fears that a trade war could push the world into a recession. China rolled out a 34% tariff on all U.S. imports and placed export restrictions on seven types of rare earth metals. This caused oil prices to plummet to pandemic-era lows and sent the VIX to levels not seen since the early days of the pandemic. In response, Trump has said he's open to talks, which contradicts what White House officials have been saying about the tariffs not being part of a negotiating tactic. With so much uncertainty, investors are pulling the trigger and worrying about the details later.
Despite the sharp drops in U.S. stocks—Nasdaq is now down 20% from its highs—Bitcoin has been surprisingly resilient, holding steady above important support levels. Short-term buyers are stepping in, while long-term holders are growing more confident despite the market’s volatility. Bitcoin dropped from $84,600 to $81,000, but it seems like the downside is limited for now, as the worst-case scenarios are playing out. Markets don’t like uncertainty, and sometimes the anticipation of bad news causes more panic than the news itself. So far this year, Bitcoin is doing better than Nasdaq, losing just 10% compared to Nasdaq’s 17% loss. Nasdaq saw its worst single-day drop since 2000 on Thursday, falling nearly 5.5%. The chances of a rate cut have jumped from 18% a week ago to 44% now, with the market now expecting 4 to 5 cuts this year.
In other updates, Fed chair Powell is scheduled to talk about the economic outlook at a conference around 11:30am ET. Additionally, the SEC has acknowledged Fidelity’s filing for a spot Bitcoin ETF, bringing it one step closer to approval.
The News Room
SEC holds meetings with BlackRock, Crypto Council to discuss crypto ETF rules
On April 1, 2025, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's Crypto Task Force held separate meetings with BlackRock and the Crypto Council for Innovation's Proof of Stake Alliance to discuss regulatory aspects of cryptocurrency exchange-traded products (ETPs). BlackRock presented on in-kind redemptions for crypto ETPs, proposing models where investors could exchange ETF shares directly for the underlying cryptocurrency, aiming to enhance efficiency and reduce costs. The Crypto Council's discussion focused on the implications of staking within ETPs, addressing how staking rewards could be integrated and their potential impact on fund performance. These discussions indicate the SEC's openness to evolving its regulatory framework to accommodate innovative structures in the cryptocurrency investment space.
Bitcoin hashrate hits record 972 EH/s as US miners capture 30% of market
Bitcoin's network hashrate has reached a record 972 exahashes per second (EH/s), reflecting increased mining activity and network security. U.S.-listed mining companies now account for 30% of the global hashrate, marking a significant milestone in the industry. However, this growth in mining power has not led to higher profits, with marginal revenue per megawatt-hour decreasing from $200 to $150 due to Bitcoin's declining price and increased network competition.
Crypto Charts
ETF Flow
Disclaimer
This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
The information on which the analysis is based has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable such as, for example, the company’s financial statements filed with a regulator, company website, company white paper, pitchbook and any other sources. While Secure Digital Markets has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable, it does not perform an audit or seek independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives.
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Crypto and/or digital currencies involve substantial risk, are speculative in nature and may not perform as expected. Many digital currency platforms are not subject to regulatory supervision, unlike regulated exchanges. Some platforms may commingle customer assets in shared accounts and provide inadequate custody, which may affect whether or how investors can withdraw their currency and/or subject them to money laundering. Digital currencies may be vulnerable to hacks and cyber fraud as well as significant volatility and price swings.
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