April 8, 2024

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Economic Calendar

Next FOMC meeting: May 1st 2024

  • Probability of a 25bps ease → 2%
  • Probability of a 0bps hike → 98%

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The News Room

Australia Eyes First Spot Bitcoin ETF as Monochrome Applies to Cboe

Monochrome Asset Management, based in Australia, has submitted an application to Cboe Australia for a spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF), which, if approved, could be Australia's first to directly hold Bitcoin. The country currently hosts two exchange-traded products on Cboe Australia offering exposure to crypto assets without direct Bitcoin holding. The Monochrome Bitcoin ETF, regarded as the firm's flagship product, aims to offer investors a regulated pathway to Bitcoin investment, leveraging Cboe Australia's reputation, strategic positioning in Asia, and broad investor access. Having already secured approval from the Australian Securities & Investments Commission (ASIC), Monochrome anticipates a decision on their application from Cboe Australia by mid-year, aiming for a Q2 listing as outlined by their head of legal and compliance, Derek Vladimir Henningsen.

FTX Estate Sells $1.9 Billion SOL Holdings Amid Market Interest

The FTX estate has liquidated approximately $1.9 billion worth of SOL, roughly two-thirds of a lot initially valued at $2.6 billion, containing up to 30 million SOL tokens priced at $64 each, albeit at a discount due to their locked status, as reported by Bloomberg. The sale attracted substantial interest, including a significant bid from Galaxy Trading, which established a $620 million fund specifically for acquiring FTX's SOL holdings, charging a 1% management fee. With a total of 41 million SOL still locked, representing about $7.5 billion, FTX's holdings in Solana constituted the largest share of its digital asset portfolio. Various firms, including Neptune Digital and Pantera, have participated in acquiring portions of these SOL assets, contributing to the fluctuating market dynamics surrounding Solana, especially after its price recovery in early 2024 and achieving a peak market capitalization of $81 billion in mid-March.

Genesis Converts GBTC Holdings into $2.2 Billion Worth of Bitcoin for Creditor Payback

Genesis, the bankrupt crypto lender, has successfully sold its holdings in the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) and subsequently acquired 32,041 Bitcoin, a move documented in court filings from April 7. This strategic transaction, completed on April 2, follows the New York bankruptcy court's approval on February 15 for Genesis to liquidate its nearly 36 million GBTC shares and additional stakes in Grayscale Ethereum trusts. Initially, the Grayscale shares were collectively appraised at approximately $1.6 billion. With Bitcoin's current market value, the newly acquired Bitcoin are estimated to be worth nearly $2.2 billion. Genesis aims to distribute these Bitcoin among its Gemini Earn creditors as part of its debt resolution plan.

Trading Desk Insights

Bitcoin is currently navigating through a symmetrical triangle formation, hovering without a definitive direction. After a bounce from the triangle's lower edge near $64,500, the momentum is expected to propel us toward a recent peak of $72,000. With the ETF market witnessing solid inflows and the looming supply shock anticipated by the market, a breakout above this pattern, leading to new all-time highs, seems likely in the near term.

In terms of ETF movements, the scene remains bullish with net inflows hitting $213.4 million, while Grayscale's outflows were comparatively modest at $79.3 million.

The ETH/BTC ratio, an indicator often associated with altcoin market leadership when on the rise, is teasing recent low levels. This underperformance by ETH could hint at a growing cautious sentiment and a dampening enthusiasm for altcoins.

March saw a remarkable surge in trading volumes, with spot trading on centralized exchanges jumping 108% to $2.94 trillion – the highest since May 2021 and marking the sixth consecutive monthly rise. Derivatives trading volumes also soared by 86.5% to a record $6.18 trillion, though their share of the total crypto market dipped slightly to 67.8% from February's 70.1%, the lowest since December 2022.

In the broader financial market, equity futures edged up slightly following a significant drop in the S&P 500, marking its largest one-day decline since February 13th. All eyes were on the jobs data, which significantly surpassed expectations and highlighted a robust and enduring labor market. The reported increase of 303,000 nonfarm payrolls in March, outstripping the 212,000 forecast, and a dip in the unemployment rate to 3.8% underscore the market's resilience but also complicate the prospects for rate cuts.

Neel Kashkari's comments on inflation and rate adjustments underscore a cautious stance towards easing monetary policy, especially without clear indications of inflation stabilizing. Although Kashkari’s influence in the Federal Open Market Committee is noted, his voting power won't come into play until 2026. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks earlier in the week reflect a careful approach to interest rate decisions, with the Fed taking its time to assess inflation trends fully, keeping the timeline for any potential rate cuts uncertain.

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Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.

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