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Recession chatter is heating up on Wall Street as Trump's tariffs inject fresh uncertainty into an already fragile macro picture. The latest move: a 104% tariff on Chinese imports, after a retaliatory 84% rate from Beijing, effective April 10. The EU’s not sitting this one out either—Brussels is prepping tariffs between 10% and 25% on U.S. goods. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is urging China to come to the table while also signaling that Washington is eyeing "regulatory impediments" to blockchain, stablecoins, and next-gen payment systems.
Don’t count on the Fed to save the day just yet. Despite sticky inflation, markets are still pricing in five 25bps cuts from Powell this year. But the real story is the correlation breakdown—we’re seeing simultaneous drawdowns in equities, gold, bonds, and oil. Everyone’s scrambling for cash, and liquidity risk is now front and center. Even DeFi’s feeling the heat, with TVL dropping to $95B, the lowest since November.
Technicals on BTC show it hovering near oversold levels. A bounce above $80K looks likely, but we’re watching for shorts to reload around $84K. A clean break above $84.5K would bring us back to neutral, while $88K+ is the level to flip the tape bullish again. Strong support is holding between $67K–$73K—for now.
The News Room
First US-traded XRP ETF had ‘a terrific response’ on launch day, says Teucrim CEO
Teucrium Asset Management launched the Teucrium 2x Long Daily XRP ETF (ticker: XXRP) on April 8, 2025, marking the first U.S.-listed exchange-traded fund focused on XRP. The leveraged ETF aims to deliver twice the daily return of XRP through swap contracts. Despite volatile market conditions driven by tariff concerns, the fund saw over 215,000 shares traded on its debut day, indicating strong investor interest. Teucrium CEO Sal Gilbertie noted that the fund is designed as a short-term trading tool suited for volatile markets. However, leveraged ETFs carry heightened risks due to their use of borrowed capital to amplify gains or losses.
FDIC working on new crypto guidelines, eyes public blockchain use by banks
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) is developing new guidelines to allow U.S. banks to engage with cryptocurrencies and utilize public, permissionless blockchains, marking a shift toward a more transparent and accommodating regulatory framework. Acting Chairman Travis Hill emphasized the need for appropriate safeguards while acknowledging the potential benefits of blockchain technology. The FDIC plans to issue further guidance on specific digital asset use cases, including stablecoins and tokenized deposits, aiming to balance innovation with safety and soundness standards.
Ethereum's (ETH) price has dropped below its realized price of $2,200, a level representing the average acquisition cost of all ETH holders. This decline suggests that many investors are now holding ETH at a loss, a condition that has historically indicated potential market bottoms. Over the past week, ETH has decreased by approximately 20%, reaching a two-year low of $1,415 amid broader macroeconomic uncertainties. Analysts note that similar dips below the realized price in previous cycles have often marked the final stages of major downtrends, potentially presenting strategic entry points for long-term investors.
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
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Crypto and/or digital currencies involve substantial risk, are speculative in nature and may not perform as expected. Many digital currency platforms are not subject to regulatory supervision, unlike regulated exchanges. Some platforms may commingle customer assets in shared accounts and provide inadequate custody, which may affect whether or how investors can withdraw their currency and/or subject them to money laundering. Digital currencies may be vulnerable to hacks and cyber fraud as well as significant volatility and price swings.
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