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Yesterday’s US session lit up across crypto as BTC ripped 5% to $94.5k in just a few hours. A hotter-than-expected JOLTs print tripped stops and triggered momentum buying, sending both BTC and ETH higher alongside fresh ETF inflows. Flows were clean, mostly short covering early, then real money followed. Market tone feels constructive but still range-bound, with most desks leaning toward a slow grind higher into year-end between 85k and 100k. There’s still a chance of a macro or seasonal squeeze clearing $100k before a retest of the $106k area, but declining realized vol, now tracking the S&P, has dulled the setup. Among alts, ZEC continues to trade with standout momentum.
The Fed takes center stage today, lining up a third consecutive rate cut while trying to sound tough about what comes next. The committee remains split: some want to ease further to protect the labor market, others worry more cuts could reignite inflation. A “hawkish cut” seems most likely, rates down, but language signaling a pause. Futures now price just 20% odds of another move in January and about 34% for March. Inflation is drifting lower but not gone, with the Fed’s preferred gauge at 2.8% in September, just under forecasts but still above target. There’s chatter the Fed could resume limited bond buys to calm funding markets, though nothing close to the old QE playbook. Powell’s 2:30pm ET press conference will set the tone for the week.
Equities are rotating under the surface. Small caps are finally catching a bid, with the Russell 2000 touching a new intraday high Tuesday as traders lean into the rate-cut theme.
One wildcard: a pending Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s “reciprocal” tariff plan could inject another shot of volatility if it drops this week.
Crypto Charts
ETF Flow
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
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