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Bitcoin has eased this morning despite the S&P 500 hitting fresh record highs, with BTC dipping toward the low $91k area after failing to clear $94.5k for the third time in five weeks. The price action feels eerily similar to late-December range trading, and alts have taken steeper hits as that pattern plays out. BTC is now trying to fill the CME gap around $90.5k–$91k, a common magnet during thin liquidity sessions.
One subtle bearish signal the desk is watching is the negative Coinbase Premium, which suggests U.S. retail and institutional participants still aren’t aggressively bidding the rally, even though analysts argue December’s tax-related selling is behind us. That disconnect indicates the move up so far is still skewed toward offshore and quant flow rather than broad domestic participation.
Geopolitics is still intersecting with markets. The White House confirmed ongoing oil purchases from Venezuela and a selective rollback of sanctions, which weighed on crude prices. Broader markets reacted, with risk assets mixed and safe havens like gold continuing to attract flows amid persistent macro uncertainty. Lower energy prices are now being discussed as a potential disinflationary factor that could support risk-asset liquidity, including Bitcoin.
On the equities front, Strategy (MSTR) saw its shares pop after MSCI shelved plans to exclude digital-asset treasury companies from its indexes, a near-term risk that has just been postponed. Strategy and peer DATCO names rallied on the relief, though the underlying debate on their classification is still in play and under broader review for later this year.
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
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