July 10, 2023

Markets Insights

Next FOMC meeting: July 26 2023.

  • Probability of a 0bps hike → 8%
  • Probability of a 25bps hike → 92%

The News Room

Rush for Hong Kong’s crypto licenses yet to translate to jobs

Recruiters in Hong Kong anticipate a boom in cryptocurrency-related job opportunities. The increasing adoption of digital assets and blockchain technology is driving demand for skilled professionals in the crypto industry. Recruiters expect job growth in various areas such as blockchain development, compliance, and digital asset trading. Hong Kong's favorable regulatory environment and its status as a financial hub make it an attractive destination for crypto companies and talent. This trend highlights the expanding ecosystem and job prospects in the crypto sector, indicating the growing recognition of cryptocurrencies as a legitimate and impactful industry.


Mantle Network is voting to form a $200 million ecosystem fund

Mantle Network, a decentralized finance (DeFi) platform, is conducting a community vote to establish a $200 million ecosystem fund. The fund aims to support projects and initiatives within the Mantle Network ecosystem. Through community voting, participants can shape the allocation and distribution of funds, fostering decentralization and community governance. The establishment of the ecosystem fund demonstrates a commitment to community-driven development and investment in the growth and sustainability of the DeFi ecosystem.


Salvadoran teenager becomes Bitcoin teacher, no longer earning ‘6 dollars a day’

A Salvadoran teenager has become a Bitcoin teacher, educating others about cryptocurrency in his local community. With first-hand experience in trading Bitcoin since a young age, he aims to spread awareness and understanding of digital currencies, particularly in El Salvador where Bitcoin is recognized as legal tender. Through his teaching efforts, he hopes to empower individuals with the knowledge and skills to participate in the crypto economy, showcasing the potential for cryptocurrencies to create opportunities and financial inclusion, especially among the younger generation.


Matrixport appoints new head for US business

Matrixport, a leading cryptocurrency financial services platform, has appointed a new CEO to oversee its US business operations. The new CEO will be responsible for driving growth, expanding the platform's customer base, and strengthening its presence in the US market. The appointment reflects Matrixport's commitment to strategic leadership and its focus on scaling its operations in key regions. With experienced leadership at the helm, Matrixport aims to further position itself as a trusted and reliable platform for institutional and retail investors in the cryptocurrency space.



U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen's recent visit establishes a fresh paradigm in the U.S.-China relationship. Mere days prior to Yellen's arrival in China, the country's Commerce Ministry declared impending export regulations on two metals vital to semiconductor production. Nevertheless, enhanced dialogue can assist in defining parameters for governmental activities.

On Monday morning, U.S. stock futures remained steady in anticipation of significant inflation data to be released this week and the initiation of the second quarter's earnings season. The report on the consumer price index is scheduled for Wednesday, to be followed by the producer price index - an indicator of pressures on wholesale prices - on Thursday. While the growth of nonfarm payrolls in June was below predictions, wages grew slightly more than anticipated, leading to worries about possible additional rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Financial giants including BlackRock, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citi are all set to disclose their earnings this Friday.

Looking at the S&P500, prices have broken below a rising trend line formed at the end of May. This may serve as a warning sign that a potential trend reversal might be in sight. If prices break above 4472 then it would invalidate the previous trend line breakdown and continue the uptrend further. If prices break below 4370, then it would confirm a double top breakdown, thus dragging prices lower towards the gap near 4340 and 4300.

  • MONDAY: BOE speaks
  • TUESDAY: China loans and money supply
  • WEDNESDAY: US CPI + CAD BOC rate decision
  • THURSDAY: US PPI + unemployment claims
  • FRIDAY: US consumer sentiment


The computational capacity of the Bitcoin network, gauged via its hash rate, is nearing record-breaking levels. However, the pace of this rise has slightly decelerated in the past week, chiefly due to power supply difficulties in Texas triggered by extreme heat conditions. Despite these issues, renewable energy sources, including solar and wind power, have played a crucial role in maintaining the stability of the power grid.

Taking into account a two-week rolling average, the current hash rate for Bitcoin is approximately 379 terahashes per second (th/s), which is just a whisker away from its historical peak of 382 th/s. This underscores the enduring robustness and expansion of the network.

BTCUSDT hasn’t recovered from the symmetrical triangle breakdown that took place last Thursday. As long as prices remain under 30,500, it would be wise to expect further downside. If prices manage to break above 30,500 then we would more likely retest the 31,300 level. If prices continue lower and break below 29,530, we can expect further pressure towards 28,500.

  • BTC > 27,500 → Bullish
  • BTC < 27,500 → Neutral
  • BTC < 24,850 → Bearish


Let’s look at the recent on-chain activity from Tron's founder, Justin Sun. Noted by the crypto detective Lookonchain, Sun has conducted a transaction of 23,000 ETH, equivalent to around $43 million, to the Poloniex exchange. Despite the exact reasoning for this significant transfer remaining a mystery, there's an escalating amount of conjecture emerging from the crypto Twitter sphere. Over the past year, Sun has moved a staggering 67,500 ETH ($126M) to Poloniex, in a series of seven transactions.

Given that Poloniex is a platform enabling staking, one theory proposes that Sun's intention is to stake the funds there, something he has previously been known to do.

An alternative interpretation suggests that this move is aimed at boosting the liquidity on the Poloniex exchange. As Sun plays a crucial role in the operations of this trading platform, ensuring sufficient liquidity to handle all client transactions is crucial. Hence, this capital transfer may be intended to bolster this capability.

While the total amount transferred may not significantly impact the Ethereum market, the moves from such a high-profile figure could potentially influence others' market perceptions.

ETHUSDT has remained between 1845 and 1880 since the drop on Thursday. We’re not seeing a ton of bullish momentum enter the market but there’s no major selling pressure either. A breakdown of 1825 would open the door for lower prices near 1770.

ETHBTC continues to pull back from the resistance level of 0.064 and is now testing the recent lows of 0.0606.

  • ETH > 1910 → Bullish
  • ETH < 1910 → Neutral
  • ETH < 1630 → Bearish

Altcoin Watch - Altcoins v BTC

Altcoins have been struggling to hold their value against BTC since April, as BTC Dominance has been on a strong uptrend amongst the loss of investor confidence for altcoins and the shift towards Bitcoin.

In July 2019, altcoins were at the same valuation against BTC that they are today.

While timeframes do not have to align perfectly, this chart still suggests that altcoins could collectively drop another 40% against BTC.


This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.

Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.

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