July 11, 2023

Markets Insights

Next FOMC meeting: July 26 2023.

  • Probability of a 0bps hike → 8%
  • Probability of a 25bps hike → 92%

The News Room

Dubai crypto regulator suspends BitOasis crypto exchange license

Dubai's Vara licensing authority has suspended the license of the BitOasis cryptocurrency exchange. The suspension comes following concerns about the exchange's compliance with anti-money laundering (AML) regulations. BitOasis is a popular exchange in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and this development highlights the increasing regulatory scrutiny in the region. The suspension emphasizes the importance for cryptocurrency exchanges to adhere to AML and other regulatory requirements to maintain their licenses and foster trust within the industry.


Aave set to vote on launching GHO stablecoin on Ethereum mainnet

Aave, a prominent decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol, has launched GHO, a stablecoin, on the Ethereum blockchain. GHO is designed to be pegged to the Ghanaian cedi, providing users with a stable value digital asset. This initiative aims to facilitate financial inclusion and enable individuals in Ghana to access decentralized lending and borrowing services through the Aave platform. The launch of GHO demonstrates the increasing adoption and utility of stablecoins in DeFi, offering users around the world access to stable and reliable digital assets.


Tether launches USDT on Kava

Tether, one of the leading stablecoin issuers, has launched its USDT stablecoin on the Kava blockchain. The integration of USDT on Kava allows users to utilize the stablecoin within the Kava ecosystem, which includes lending, borrowing, and other DeFi services. This collaboration enhances the interoperability of Tether's USDT and expands its reach to the Kava community. The launch of USDT on Kava provides users with additional options for utilizing stablecoins within the Kava DeFi platform.


Consensys launches Linea Layer 2 on mainnet alpha release

ConsenSys Linea, a subsidiary of ConsenSys, has launched its Layer 2 scaling solution for Ethereum. This solution aims to address the scalability challenges faced by the Ethereum network, allowing for faster and more cost-efficient transactions. ConsenSys Linea's Layer 2 solution utilizes a technique known as zero-knowledge rollups to optimize transaction throughput and reduce fees. The introduction of Layer 2 scaling solutions is crucial for the growth and wider adoption of Ethereum, enabling improved scalability and usability for decentralized applications (dApps) built on the Ethereum blockchain.



Microsoft confirmed Monday that it’s eliminating additional jobs, a week after the start of its 2024 fiscal year. The cuts are in addition to the downsizing announced in January that resulted in 10,000 layoffs. The software maker also disclosed a small number of cuts this time last year.

U.S. stock futures rose slightly Tuesday, after the major averages snapped a three-day decline, as traders await key inflation data slated for release later in the week.

On an intraday basis, the S&P500 is trading in a choppy fashion between 4413 and 4472. After breaking below a rising trend line, the index has been trying to recover. Looking at the daily chart, we see that prices are trying to rebound off the 20-day moving average which may very well act as support in the short term. A break and close below this level would drag prices lower towards the gap between 4300 and 4340.


  • TUESDAY: China loans and money supply
  • WEDNESDAY: US CPI + CAD BOC rate decision
  • THURSDAY: US PPI + unemployment claims
  • FRIDAY: US consumer sentiment


Historically, the trajectory of Bitcoin's value has been characterized by cyclical patterns involving a mix of bull and bear market phases with periods of price stagnation. At present, we are witnessing a period of stagnation where the price seems to be moving sideways. Such periods often create a sense of uncertainty among investors, as they remain unsure whether the price would experience a surge or a drastic fall.

Looking back, the resistance point was approximately $425 during the cycle from 2013 to 2016. Similarly, during the 2018-2019 cycle, it settled around $6,500. Currently, the market seems to be consolidating once more around the $30,000 mark. This situation brings an interesting dynamic into play for Bitcoin, as observers anticipate whether it will surpass this resistance or yield to it.

Standard Chartered, an international bank, has forecasted that the price of Bitcoin could potentially reach $50,000 by the end of this year and could further climb to $120,000 in the following year, as per a Reuters report dated July 10. This estimate aligns with the prediction made by Matrixport, a crypto financial services platform, that Bitcoin's value would ascend to $125,000 by 2024.

Standard Chartered emphasized the pivotal role Bitcoin miners could assume in this prospective price surge. Geoff Kendrick, a foreign exchange analyst at the bank, explained that an enhancement in profitability for each Bitcoin mined implies miners can sell fewer Bitcoins while preserving their cash inflows. This, in turn, reduces the net Bitcoin supply, thereby potentially driving Bitcoin prices upward.

BTCUSDT has been ranging between 29,530 and 31,300 since June 22nd. Despite the triangle breakdown on July 6th, prices were able to recover and reach a high of 31,050 yesterday. What is interesting with this move, is that prices weren’t able to close above the support line from the previous triangle pattern.

We are anticipating more choppy price action ahead until the CPI figure tomorrow morning. If the US dollar keeps dropping further, then it’s possible that BTC breaks above the yearly highs.

  • BTC > 27,500 → Bullish
  • BTC < 27,500 → Neutral
  • BTC < 24,850 → Bearish


Aave DAO community members will begin voting on whether to deploy the much-awaited gho (GHO) U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoin on the Ethereum blockchain later today, an Aave Improvement Proposal (AIP) shows. Gho has been available on the Ethereum blockchain’s Goerli testnet since February, where it has functioned without encountering any major bugs.

Aave is a lending and borrowing platform that allows users to earn yields on their pledged tokens. Gho, an algorithmic stablecoin, can be minted by users against a diversified set of crypto assets. GHO holders will continue to earn interest on the supplied collateral, just as in other lending transactions on Aave, which means ghost in Finnish.

Just shy of $45 billion or 20% of Ethereum in circulation has been staked—a milestone reached on Monday. People pledge tokens to the network to keep it secure and receive rewards for doing so. And close to 24 million Ethereum is currently locked up across 744,000 validators that process transactions, according to a dashboard on Dune Analytics.

ETHUSDT is also trading in a choppy fashion, just like Bitcoin. Prices are trading in a price range of high volume between 1825 and 1935. The RSI is capped by a declining trend line, advocating for further downside.

If prices manage to break below 1825, then it might confirm the breakdown of a potential Head-and-Shoulders pattern, sending prices towards 1770 and 1715 in extension.

ETHBTC continues its trend lower, meaning that Bitcoin is still outperforming Ethereum in this market.

  • ETH > 1910 → Bullish
  • ETH < 1910 → Neutral
  • ETH < 1630 → Bearish

Altcoin Watch - BTC Dominance

BTC Dominance is currently on our watchlist due to Bitcoin recently breaking its April '23 highs, meanwhile many altcoins are still significantly down, suggesting they are likely to see some further upside.

An early indication of this is the BTC.D daily chart breaking daily structure towards the downside. The fixed volume profile reveals voids needing to be filled, which will be satisfied when the leg is rebalanced.

Therefore, if BTC continues to hold levels above $30,000, and BTC.D falls, capital is likely to flow into altcoins, with the potential to provide higher returns.


This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.

Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.

The information on which the analysis is based has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable such as, for example, the company’s financial statements filed with a regulator, company website, company white paper, pitchbook and any other sources. While Secure Digital Markets has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable, it does not perform an audit or seek independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives.

Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, Secure Digital Markets does not represent that the report contents meet all of the presentation and/or disclosure standards applicable in the jurisdiction the recipient is located. Secure Digital Markets and their officers, directors and employees shall not be responsible or liable for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses, or opinions within the report.

Crypto and/or digital currencies involve substantial risk, are speculative in nature and may not perform as expected. Many digital currency platforms are not subject to regulatory supervision, unlike regulated exchanges. Some platforms may commingle customer assets in shared accounts and provide inadequate custody, which may affect whether or how investors can withdraw their currency and/or subject them to money laundering. Digital currencies may be vulnerable to hacks and cyber fraud as well as significant volatility and price swings.

Contact Us

Start trading with Secure Digital Markets today by e-mailing:



Was this content helpful?
Announcing the Release of the 2023 Market Outlook
April 23, 2023
9 min
April 23, 2023
Crypto Industry Reeling After 3 Banks Collapsed Over the Weekend
March 24, 2023
9 min
March 24, 2023