July 12, 2023

Markets Insights

Next FOMC meeting: July 26 2023.

  • Probability of a 0bps hike → 8%
  • Probability of a 25bps hike → 92%

The News Room

Russian parliament passes digital ruble bill

The Russian Parliament has given the green light to a bill that paves the way for the creation of a digital version of the country's currency, the rouble. The digital rouble aims to improve transaction efficiency and reduce reliance on foreign payment systems. The Central Bank of Russia will oversee the issuance and regulation of the digital currency, which will be backed by the same assets as the traditional rouble. This move reflects Russia's growing interest in digital currencies and their potential to modernize the financial system.


Traditional asset managers’ plans are 'moment of validation,' says Grayscale boss

Grayscale CEO Michael Sonnenshein views the recent entry of traditional asset managers into the cryptocurrency space as a moment of validation for the industry. He believes that the involvement of established players demonstrates the growing acceptance of cryptocurrencies as legitimate investment assets. Sonnenshein notes the benefits of diversifying portfolios with digital assets and believes that the increasing institutional interest will contribute to the long-term growth and maturity of the crypto market.


Celsius files lawsuit to recover $150M from staking platform StakeHound

Crypto lending platform Celsius Network has initiated legal proceedings against StakeHound, a staking platform, in an attempt to recover $150 million in assets. The dispute stems from a partnership between the two companies, where Celsius provided assets to StakeHound for staking purposes. However, Celsius alleges that StakeHound failed to return the assets and violated their agreement. This lawsuit underscores the potential risks and challenges associated with decentralized finance (DeFi) and emphasizes the importance of conducting thorough due diligence when engaging with third-party platforms.


Bank of China trials offline payments for digital yuan via SIM cards

The Bank of China is conducting trials to enable offline payments using the digital yuan through SIM cards. This development aims to address connectivity issues and ensure widespread adoption of the central bank digital currency (CBDC). Users will be able to make transactions without relying on internet access, making the digital yuan more accessible in remote areas or during network outages. These trials mark a significant step toward the practical implementation of CBDCs and highlight the potential of offline functionality to enhance the usability of digital currencies.



Inflation fell to its lowest annual rate in more than two years last month. The consumer price index increased 3% from a year ago, below estimates of 3.1%, which is the lowest level since March 2021. On a monthly basis, the index rose by 0.2%, better than forecasts of 0.3%. These numbers could give the Federal Reserve some breathing room as it looks to bring down inflation that was running around a 9% annual rate at this time in 2022, the highest since November 1981.

Following the CPI figure, the US dollar index traded lower just like the Treasury yields which allowed risk assets such as Bitcoin and the stock market to surge towards yearly highs.

The S&P500 reached yearly highs after breaking above the recent high of 4497 and is now trading around 4515. The softening inflation figure has clearly opened the door for risk assets to squeeze higher. Once again, as long as the index is trading above its 20-day moving average, it would be wise to remain bullish.


  • WEDNESDAY: US CPI + CAD BOC rate decision
  • THURSDAY: US PPI + unemployment claims
  • FRIDAY: US consumer sentiment


Bitcoin’s correlation to other asset classes has significantly changed since the start of the year. The 90-day correlation to the S&P%500 declined from 0.40 to 0.10, its lowest level since June 2021, while the negative correlation to the US Dollar Index improved from 0.40 to 0.20 in the same time period.

Looking at price action, BTCUSDT is struggling to break and close above 30,850. Once we break that barrier, prices will face their next challenge at 31,500.

Zooming out to the daily chart, as long as prices are trading above the 20-day moving average, just like the stock market, then you should remain bullish.

  • BTC > 27,500 → Bullish
  • BTC < 27,500 → Neutral
  • BTC < 24,850 → Bearish


Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal is predicting that Ethereum (ETH) will hit new all-time highs before the year’s end. Pal says that the Dollar Index (DXY) is likely to break its support at 100 in the coming months, which he notes could boost the performance of risk-on assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies.

- “We think the NDX may get to new all-time highs by November; the same applies to ETH. The NDX continues to outperform current liquidity conditions. This also happened in the past in 2019, for example – you can’t hold a beach ball underwater for long – the NDX will always tend to outperform.”
- “Dollar weakness is not the ONLY thing that matters for risk assets and crypto markets, but looking back, it’s a pretty big plus”

ETHUSDT continues to range between 1825 and 1935. A clear break above this range would be very bullish while a breakdown of this range low would send prices lower towards 1770 and potentially 1715.

Nothing significant to report with ETHBTC either. We believe this ratio will rebound off the recent lows of 0.0606 and test the resistance area of 0.064 again.

  • ETH > 1910 → Bullish
  • ETH < 1910 → Neutral
  • ETH < 1630 → Bearish

Altcoin Watch - Polygon (MATIC)

On July 11, MATIC’s price rose 2.32% to $0.75, its highest level in a month — outperforming the crypto market, whose valuation stayed relatively unchanged from the previous day at around $1.14 trillion.

MATIC’s intraday gains come as a part of a broader price jump that started after Polygon appointed its former chief legal office, Marc Boiron, as the new CEO on July 7. Since then, MATIC/USD has gained nearly 15%.

Boiron’s appointment comes more than a month after the United States Securities and Exchange Commission argued that MATIC is a “security” in its lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase.

Meanwhile, the price gains also appear as Polygon prepares to implement a sequence of network upgrades as a part of its “Polygon 2.0” overhaul. Namely, the establishment of a “decentralized governance” protocol by July 17.

MATIC/USDT - On the daily chart, price is still bearish, and yet to reach the 0.7642 resistance level which is likely to trigger the continuation down.


This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.

Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.

The information on which the analysis is based has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable such as, for example, the company’s financial statements filed with a regulator, company website, company white paper, pitchbook and any other sources. While Secure Digital Markets has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable, it does not perform an audit or seek independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives.

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Crypto and/or digital currencies involve substantial risk, are speculative in nature and may not perform as expected. Many digital currency platforms are not subject to regulatory supervision, unlike regulated exchanges. Some platforms may commingle customer assets in shared accounts and provide inadequate custody, which may affect whether or how investors can withdraw their currency and/or subject them to money laundering. Digital currencies may be vulnerable to hacks and cyber fraud as well as significant volatility and price swings.

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