July 14, 2023

Markets Insights

Next FOMC meeting: July 26 2023.

  • Probability of a 0bps hike → 5%
  • Probability of a 25bps hike → 95%

The News Room

Celsius Satisfied with Resolutions Amid $4.7B FTC Fine

Crypto lending platform Celsius Network expresses satisfaction with the resolutions reached after the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) imposed a $4.7 billion fine on Celsius over alleged deceptive marketing practices. Celsius agreed to modify certain advertising claims and enhance disclosures to provide greater transparency to users. The resolution demonstrates Celsius' commitment to regulatory compliance and consumer protection, highlighting the importance of clear communication and responsible practices within the crypto lending industry.


MultiversX Launches On-chain Two-Factor Authentication Standard

MultiversX, a blockchain-based cybersecurity company, has introduced an on-chain two-factor authentication (2FA) standard. This standard aims to enhance security by providing an additional layer of protection against unauthorized access and cyber threats. By utilizing the blockchain, MultiversX ensures the integrity and immutability of 2FA data, mitigating the risks associated with traditional centralized authentication systems. The launch of this on-chain 2FA standard underscores the industry's continuous efforts to improve cybersecurity measures within the crypto ecosystem.


Multichain Ceases Operations as CEO's Sister is Detained in China with $220M of Funds

Multichain, a blockchain infrastructure provider, has halted operations after the CEO's sister was detained in China while holding $220 million of company funds. The sudden turn of events has left Multichain unable to access its assets, resulting in the cessation of operations. This incident highlights the risks and challenges associated with the custody of funds within the crypto industry, emphasizing the importance of robust security measures and proper governance to safeguard investor funds and maintain business continuity.


Rival Exchanges Reopen XRP Trading Following Court Ruling, Joining Coinbase

Several rival cryptocurrency exchanges have followed in Coinbase's footsteps and resumed XRP trading after a favorable court ruling. The court decision deemed XRP not to be a security, providing clarity and regulatory certainty for the digital asset. The move by multiple exchanges to reopen XRP trading signals growing confidence in the legal status of the cryptocurrency and indicates a potential resurgence of interest and liquidity in XRP markets. This development showcases the influence of legal rulings on market dynamics within the crypto space.



On Friday, the US stock market experienced an upturn, driven by strong earnings reports from some of the leading banks and corporations, marking the start of the earnings season. Wall Street is extending its winning streak to a fourth consecutive day, and both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 have hit their peak levels since April 2022.

Looking at the week's overall performance, all three major indices are on a strong upward trajectory. The S&P 500 has increased by 2.5% this week, and the Dow has risen by 1.9%, based on Thursday's closing figures. The Nasdaq Composite, however, is the standout performer, having jumped by 3.5% and is set to record its best week since March 17.

The S&P500 keeps advancing in light of the most recent inflation data from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), which showed signs of easing and helped propel the market to its annual peak. The former resistance level of 4495 is now serving as a base of support. If the index retracts towards this point, and provided no significant shifts occur in the macroeconomic landscape, this could potentially present a favorable opportunity to align with the general upward trend and enter a long position.


  • FRIDAY: US consumer sentiment


Yesterday marked a pivotal moment for the cryptocurrency industry this year.

XRP experienced a monumental increase of 96% in its price within a single day, achieving its highest value since March 2022. This significant surge was driven by a U.S. judge's decision that the trading of XRP tokens on exchanges did not fall under the category of investment contracts.

The ruling sparked a rally for XRP, leading to considerations by cryptocurrency exchanges such as Gemini and Coinbase to potentially relist the token. However, preliminary interpretations by legal experts indicate that the verdict does not definitively answer the question of whether, and in what situations, a digital asset can be classified as a security under U.S. law.

Furthermore, XRP managed to surpass BNB to become the fourth-largest cryptocurrency, as its market capitalization soared by over 60% to $41.44 billion within a 24-hour span.

This remarkable surge in XRP's value can be attributed to Ripple Lab's partial triumph in a lengthy legal dispute with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) concerning the sale of XRP.

According to data from Coinglass, the aggregated volume-weighted perpetual futures funding rates worldwide have escalated to their highest point since at least December. The open interest-weighted rates have also reached a four-month high.

SDM also reported a substantial increase in altcoin buyers yesterday morning as altcoins generally outperformed in the market.

Following the shutdown of Signet, the widely utilized real-time payments platform among Signature Bank's institutional cryptocurrency clientele, a noticeable decrease in the cryptocurrency industry's transactional volume has been observed, particularly during weekends. This is attributed to the increased challenges in executing after-hours transactions.

The trading volume of BTC-USD during weekends, measured in native units, has seen a significant dip between January and June 2023. The current volume levels are the lowest recorded since 2012.

Looking at BTCUSDT, once we broke above 30,850, we reached our upside targets of 31,250 and 31,800 as expected. The #1 cryptocurrency is still underperforming the stock market and has been for a couple of weeks now. Prices are trading within a consolidation channel for now. We recommend considering long positions between 29,900 and 30,600.

We believe we will witness yearly highs somewhat soon as positive headlines keep coming out within the industry.

  • BTC > 27,500 → Bullish
  • BTC < 27,500 → Neutral
  • BTC < 24,850 → Bearish


As altcoins surged, it was also time for ETH to finally outshine BTC.

ETH squeezed by 7.75% and outperformed BTC by 3.25% yesterday. It seems that ETH is trading at the top-end of a rising trend channel on an intraday basis which may indicate that prices might take a breather soon back down towards the range of 1935-1965.

ETHBTC is still in a downtrend as it remains below the declining trend line. However, if this shapes up to be the start of altcoin season, then we can expect this ratio to breakout eventually.

  • ETH > 1910 → Bullish
  • ETH < 1910 → Neutral
  • ETH < 1630 → Bearish

Altcoin Watch - Cardano (ADA)

Why has Cardano (ADA) gained over 32% in the past 24 hours?

Our analysis revealed the possibility for Bitcoin Dominance to show an early sign of reversal on the daily chart whilst in its weekly region of interest, that represented the week of Bitcoin reaching $65,000 for the first time.

Since, BTC.D dropped a huge 10%, and this reaction caused the exit out of the weekly region.

TOTAL3 (Total Altcoin Market Value) gained 10% and many altcoins have seen this gain on their /BTC pair.

ADA/USDT is on our watchlist today as it gained over 32% the biggest rise in 1 day since 10 Feb '21 in the heat of the bull market.

However, structure is still bearish as we are yet to break 0.3842, so we anticipate this to prove a bullish direction before relying on the support level at 0.3000.


This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.

Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.

The information on which the analysis is based has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable such as, for example, the company’s financial statements filed with a regulator, company website, company white paper, pitchbook and any other sources. While Secure Digital Markets has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable, it does not perform an audit or seek independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives.

Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, Secure Digital Markets does not represent that the report contents meet all of the presentation and/or disclosure standards applicable in the jurisdiction the recipient is located. Secure Digital Markets and their officers, directors and employees shall not be responsible or liable for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses, or opinions within the report.

Crypto and/or digital currencies involve substantial risk, are speculative in nature and may not perform as expected. Many digital currency platforms are not subject to regulatory supervision, unlike regulated exchanges. Some platforms may commingle customer assets in shared accounts and provide inadequate custody, which may affect whether or how investors can withdraw their currency and/or subject them to money laundering. Digital currencies may be vulnerable to hacks and cyber fraud as well as significant volatility and price swings.

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