July 18, 2023

Markets Insights

Next FOMC meeting: July 26 2023.

  • Probability of a 0bps hike → 3%
  • Probability of a 25bps hike → 97%

The News Room

United Kingdom’s digital pound meets public backlash — Why?

The United Kingdom's plan to introduce a digital pound, a central bank digital currency (CBDC), has raised concerns about privacy. While the CBDC aims to modernize payments and increase financial inclusion, critics worry that it could compromise individuals' privacy by enabling the government to track citizens' transactions. The privacy concerns highlight the delicate balance between implementing innovative financial technologies and protecting individuals' data and financial autonomy. As the UK explores the potential of a digital pound, regulatory frameworks and safeguards must be carefully developed to address privacy issues and maintain public trust in the financial system.


Users locked $2.4 billion on Binance to participate in Arkham token public sale

Users of the decentralized finance (DeFi) platform Binance Arkham were unable to access approximately $2.4 billion in tokens after the project's public sale. The incident has raised questions about the security and reliability of DeFi platforms, emphasizing the risks associated with investing in this emerging space. While DeFi offers exciting opportunities, its decentralized nature can also lead to vulnerabilities and smart contract risks. Investors need to exercise caution and perform due diligence before participating in DeFi projects. This event serves as a reminder of the importance of conducting thorough research and understanding the risks involved in the rapidly evolving DeFi ecosystem.


Valkyrie ‘BRRR’ spot Bitcoin ETF enters SEC’s Nasdaq rulemaking list

The SEC has placed the Valkyrie Spot Bitcoin ETF proposal on the regulatory agency's "rulemaking calendar," indicating progress in the approval process. If approved, the ETF would be listed on Nasdaq, potentially opening up new investment avenues for institutional and retail investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin in a regulated manner. ETFs are seen as an essential step in bridging traditional finance and the cryptocurrency market, offering more mainstream investors access to digital assets. However, the SEC's cautious approach highlights the need for robust regulatory oversight and investor protections in the rapidly evolving cryptocurrency space. As the regulatory landscape continues to develop, the eventual approval or rejection of the Valkyrie Bitcoin ETF will be closely monitored by the industry.



Goldman Sachs has updated its forecast for the possibility of a U.S. recession within the next year. The investment bank has reduced the likelihood from 25% to 20%, following a review of recently released economic data that has outperformed expectations. The revision was announced in a research report published late Monday.

- “The main reason for our cut is that the recent data have reinforced our confidence that bringing inflation down to an acceptable level will not require a recession”
- “But the easing in financial conditions, the rebound in the housing market, and the ongoing boom in factory building all suggest that the U.S. economy will continue to grow, albeit at a below-trend pace”

On Tuesday, Morgan Stanley exceeded analysts' forecasts, announcing second-quarter profits and revenues that were boosted by unprecedented results in wealth management. Similarly, Bank of America surpassed expectations with its second-quarter profits and revenues, which were buoyed by an increase in interest income due to higher rates.

The earnings season has started on a high note with around 82% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported so far surpassing profit predictions, as per FactSet data.

US stock futures are trading in slight negative territory as the US Dollar Index is trying to rebound off the recent lows. The S&P500 seems that it’s about to pull back from the top-end of the rising trend channel that has been in place since mid-June. The RSI is also capped by a declining trend line, advocating for further pressure as well.


    - CAD CPI
    - US retail sales
    - Earnings: Bank of America, Morgan Stanley
    - GBP CPI
    - EUR CPI
    - USD building permits
    - Earnings: Goldman Sachs, Tesla, Netflix, IBM
    - US unemployment claims
    - US home sales
    - Earnings: TSMC


When examining the mean performance from the third quarter of 2012 through to 2022, it can be observed that this quarter historically registers the least volume, and by a significant difference at that. The total trade volume of Bitcoin (BTC) during this period in Q3 is notably lower by a staggering 13 million BTC compared to the subsequent lowest quarter.

BTCUSDT has been trying to rebound off the lows of the consolidation channel on an intraday basis but can’t seem to surpass the resistance set at 30,400 which is needed to confirm a recovery. Right now, it seems that prices want to break below this pattern to the downside.

If prices manage to break below 29,500, our next target would be 28,500. If for some reason prices break below 28,500 which would also intersect with the 50-day moving average, then we would consider switching our stance from bullish to neutral.

  • BTC > 28,500 → Bullish
  • BTC < 28,500 → Neutral
  • BTC < 24,850 → Bearish


Ethereum reached a massive new milestone.

The amount of Ethereum locked in the ETH 2.0 deposit contract has reached a new peak value of a staggering 25,937,766 ETH. A new all-time high in Ethereum deposits indicated a high level of trust in the future of Ethereum and the opportunities it has to offer to validators, dApp builders and other users.

Looking at a 4h chart of ETHUSDT, we can see that prices continue to trade within the rising trend channel, advocating for further advance. A break below 1865 would serve as a warning sign that the recent uptrend might be near exhaustion.

Looking at a daily chart, prices are trading back in the price range of high volume. As long as we trade above 1800 then we believe ETH is trading in bullish territory.

  • ETH > 1800 → Bullish
  • ETH < 1800 → Neutral
  • ETH < 1630 → Bearish

Altcoin Watch - Chainlink (LINK)

Several top banks around the world are already collaborating with Chainlink to explore applications for the Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol.

The development firm behind the Chainlink protocol and its native LINK token has gone live with its cross-chain protocol, aimed at providing interoperability between traditional financial firms and both public and private blockchains.

In a July 17 post on the Chainlink blog, Chainlink Labs Chief Product Officer Kemal El Moujahid announced that its Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol (CCIP) has launched under early access on Ethereum, Avalanche, Polygon, Arbitrum and Optimism.

LINK/USDT - On the daily chart, price has formed bullish structure, as we anticipate the high of 7.344 to be broken to continue the uptrend.


This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.

Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.

The information on which the analysis is based has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable such as, for example, the company’s financial statements filed with a regulator, company website, company white paper, pitchbook and any other sources. While Secure Digital Markets has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable, it does not perform an audit or seek independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives.

Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, Secure Digital Markets does not represent that the report contents meet all of the presentation and/or disclosure standards applicable in the jurisdiction the recipient is located. Secure Digital Markets and their officers, directors and employees shall not be responsible or liable for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses, or opinions within the report.

Crypto and/or digital currencies involve substantial risk, are speculative in nature and may not perform as expected. Many digital currency platforms are not subject to regulatory supervision, unlike regulated exchanges. Some platforms may commingle customer assets in shared accounts and provide inadequate custody, which may affect whether or how investors can withdraw their currency and/or subject them to money laundering. Digital currencies may be vulnerable to hacks and cyber fraud as well as significant volatility and price swings.

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