July 21, 2023

Markets Insights

Next FOMC meeting: July 26 2023.

  • Probability of a 0bps hike → 0%
  • Probability of a 25bps hike → 100%

The News Room

UK Economic Secretary rejects regulating crypto as gambling, advocates for financial services framework

The UK Economic Secretary has rejected classifying cryptocurrencies as gambling and instead advocates for a financial services regulatory framework to govern the crypto sector. The rejection comes amidst debates about the appropriate classification and regulation of cryptocurrencies. The UK government's stance reflects a desire to promote innovation and investment in the crypto industry while ensuring consumer protection and market integrity. A financial services framework could potentially provide clarity to businesses and investors and foster responsible growth in the UK's crypto market.

https://cryptoslate.com/uk-economic-secretary-rejects-regulating-crypto-as-gambling-advocates-for-financial-services-framework/

Paradigm-backed Utopia Labs launches USDC bank transfers for businesses

Paradigm and Utopia Labs are collaborating to enable USDC bank transfers, aiming to provide a seamless fiat-to-crypto onramp for users. USDC is a stablecoin pegged to the US dollar, and this initiative aims to make it easier for users to enter the cryptocurrency market by facilitating direct transfers between their bank accounts and USDC holdings. By streamlining the process, this collaboration aims to attract new investors to the crypto space and enhance the overall usability of stablecoins in day-to-day transactions.

https://www.theblock.co/post/240880/paradigm-utopia-labs-usdc-bank-transfers

DOJ accuses SBF of leaking Caroline Ellison’s private diary to taint trial; FTX sues former executives for $1B

The Department of Justice (DOJ) accuses FTX's CEO, SBF, of leaking private information from Caroline Ellison's diary to bias her trial. In response, FTX is suing its former employees for $1 billion, claiming they stole sensitive information and used it to defame the company. This legal battle highlights the complexities and challenges in the crypto industry, particularly regarding data privacy and corporate disputes. Such incidents underscore the importance of robust data security measures and adherence to ethical practices in the cryptocurrency space.

https://cryptoslate.com/doj-accuses-sbf-of-leaking-caroline-ellisons-private-diary-to-taint-trial-ftx-sues-former-executives-for-1b/

Indonesia to launch crypto exchange in July: Report

Crypto Indonesia is set to launch a cryptocurrency exchange in July. The exchange aims to provide Indonesian investors with a regulated platform to buy, sell, and trade cryptocurrencies. As Indonesia is a significant emerging market with a growing interest in cryptocurrencies, this new exchange could contribute to increased adoption and investment opportunities in the country. Regulatory compliance will be a key factor in the exchange's success, as it aims to build trust and confidence among users and authorities. The launch of a local exchange may also promote financial inclusion by providing access to digital assets for a broader audience in Indonesia.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/crypto-indonesia-to-launch-crypto-exchange-in-july

Trading Desk Insights

Today marks an important day in the equity market for two main reasons: The Nasdaq 100 index is set to rebalance which may push some market participants to bring their portfolio in line with the benchmark before the changes take effect on Monday. Also, $2.4 trillion worth of US equity options are set to expire this Friday. The market is expected to witness a surge in trading volume accompanied with potential wild price swings.

Moving on with the cryptocurrency market, BTCUSDT keeps flirting with the recent lows and is picking up volume in that price range. We’ve warned clients before that most spikes will get rejected and are to be sold. We may very well witness another rebound back at the $30,000 mark but as long as prices remain below 30,450, we expect to retest the lows and eventually break them to the downside.

ETHBTC keeps hesitating around this 0.064 level. Every time we touch this level the ratio starts to pull back. If we can break above this level it would signify that ETH is set to outperform BTC in the near future.

Lots of moves taking place in the altcoin market: LINK jumped by over 20% recently as whales have been accumulating following the release of the cross chain interoperability protocol (CCIP) earlier this week. We are bullish on DOGE, UNI, LINK, LTC, RNDR, SOL and more.

Altcoin Watch - Cosmos (ATOM)

Blockchain interoperability project Wormhole has announced the release of the Wormhole Gateway, an application-specific blockchain (appchain) developed within the Cosmos ecosystem. The blockchain aims to connect multiple Cosmos chains and applications through a single cross-chain liquidity router.

The initial phase of the Gateway will link 23 Cosmos-based chains, including prominent chains like Osmosis, Evmos, Neutron and Sei. Plans are already underway to integrate more chains, all of which will utilize the Cosmos' native messaging protocol, the inter-blockchain communication protocol (IBC). With this, Gateway would serve as a competitor to interoperability protocols like Axelar that already connect Cosmos-based chains.

ATOM/USDT - Price has been within clear bearish structure on the daily chart since Feb '23. Price is currently failing to breach the 10.00 price level., as we expect the wick left at 7.00 to be mitigated in the coming days/weeks.

Disclaimer

This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.

Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.

The information on which the analysis is based has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable such as, for example, the company’s financial statements filed with a regulator, company website, company white paper, pitchbook and any other sources. While Secure Digital Markets has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable, it does not perform an audit or seek independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives.

Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, Secure Digital Markets does not represent that the report contents meet all of the presentation and/or disclosure standards applicable in the jurisdiction the recipient is located. Secure Digital Markets and their officers, directors and employees shall not be responsible or liable for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses, or opinions within the report.

Crypto and/or digital currencies involve substantial risk, are speculative in nature and may not perform as expected. Many digital currency platforms are not subject to regulatory supervision, unlike regulated exchanges. Some platforms may commingle customer assets in shared accounts and provide inadequate custody, which may affect whether or how investors can withdraw their currency and/or subject them to money laundering. Digital currencies may be vulnerable to hacks and cyber fraud as well as significant volatility and price swings.

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