July 25, 2023

Markets Insights

Next FOMC meeting: July 26 2023.

  • Probability of a 0bps hike → 0%
  • Probability of a 25bps hike → 100%

The News Room

Japan PM reaffirms Web3 plans as Binance announces imminent launch

Binance, the leading cryptocurrency exchange, has announced the imminent launch of Binance Web3 Japan. The new initiative aims to promote Web3 technologies and blockchain adoption in Japan, aligning with the growing interest in decentralized finance (DeFi) and the broader Web3 ecosystem. By establishing a presence in Japan, Binance seeks to tap into the country's tech-savvy population and position itself as a key player in the evolving Web3 landscape. As Web3 technologies continue to gain momentum globally, Binance's expansion into Japan is expected to drive greater awareness and adoption of blockchain-based innovations in the country's financial and technology sectors.


Fidelity-backed crypto exchange EDXM expands institutional access with Talos

Major financial firms, including Fidelity, Citadel, Charles Schwab, ED&F Man, and Talos, have joined forces to create a new platform aimed at increasing efficiencies in the cryptocurrency trading process. The collaboration will focus on streamlining post-trade processes, such as clearing and settlement, to reduce costs and enhance operational capabilities in the crypto market. By leveraging their collective expertise and resources, these financial giants seek to address some of the existing challenges faced by institutional investors when trading digital assets. The move indicates growing institutional interest and confidence in the cryptocurrency space, as more traditional financial players seek ways to participate in and improve the emerging digital asset ecosystem.


Binance wants to seek dismissal of CFTC charges in complex legal battle

Binance, facing a complex legal battle with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), plans to seek dismissal of the charges filed against the exchange. The CFTC alleges that Binance allowed U.S. residents to trade cryptocurrency derivatives illegally, despite not being registered with the commission. In response, Binance asserts that the CFTC lacks jurisdiction over digital assets. The legal dispute highlights the challenges and complexities surrounding the regulatory oversight of cryptocurrencies, particularly when exchanges operate across international borders. The outcome of this legal battle could have significant implications for the cryptocurrency industry and the jurisdictional boundaries for regulatory authorities seeking to oversee digital asset trading platforms.


Trading Desk Insights

Elon Musk recently provided an explanation for the rebranding of Twitter to 'X,' emphasizing that it entails more than a mere change of name. Musk envisions 'X' to evolve into a platform that offers comprehensive communication features and the capability to manage one's entire financial affairs.

In another development, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its projection for global economic growth in 2023 by 0.2%, now standing at 3% compared to the 2.8% forecast made in April. However, the IMF maintained its 2024 growth estimate at 3%. The organization expressed concerns over stricter credit conditions, reduced household savings in the United States, and a slower-than-anticipated economic recovery in China, influenced by the impact of stringent Covid-19 lockdowns.

Following the conclusion of the trading day, notable tech giants Alphabet and Microsoft are scheduled to disclose their quarterly results. The market awaits these announcements with interest, as they may potentially influence both the equity and cryptocurrency markets, despite a noticeable decrease in their correlation over the past couple of months.

Moving on with Bitcoin, BTCUSDT has started to recover and bounced off today’s session low of $29,075 and reached a high of $29,330. Bids were piling up around the $29k mark which explains the rebound. For now, the order book is showing some resistance around $29,400 with support near $28,600. As long as the US dollar index keeps grinding higher, we can expect risk assets to feel a bit of pressure. Given the sudden drop on Bitcoin, we believe BTC should outperform NQ in the very short term, especially that the RSI is rebounding straight from oversold territory.

There is a considerable amount of discussion on the internet regarding the potential integration of Dogecoin into Twitter's payment system. Recent changes to Elon Musk's Twitter bio have sparked renewed speculation about the possibility of using Dogecoin for transactions on his all-inclusive "everything app." Notably, Musk's profile location now displays both an "X" in reference to Twitter's new branding and a "D," which many have interpreted as a nod to Dogecoin. This cryptocurrency is a meme coin that Musk has openly endorsed in the past.

DOGE is up 17% since the start of July and +4% today.



  • US Consumer Confidence
  • Earnings → Google & Microsoft


  • US new home sales
  • US Fed decision
  • Earnings → Meta & Boeing


  • ECB decision
  • US advance GDP + unemployment claims
  • BOJ decision
  • Earnings → McDonalds & Intel


  • US core PCE index
  • US consumer sentiment
  • Earnings → Exxon Mobil

Altcoin Analysis - Dogecoin (DOGE)

Today the DOGE price climbed nearly 5.5% to $0.078, its highest level in two months.

The token’s intraday gains came as a part of a weekly rally that started two days ago when Elon Musk rebranded Twitter to X while adding the DOGE symbol to his bio.

There are also speculations that Twitter’s rebrand to X would add a DOGE payment option.

DOGE/USDT - Price structure is in a strong uptrend, with the 'X' news being the catalyst for the most recent leg to the upside. We expect the region of demand to act as support for this trend to continue.


This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.

Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.

The information on which the analysis is based has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable such as, for example, the company’s financial statements filed with a regulator, company website, company white paper, pitchbook and any other sources. While Secure Digital Markets has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable, it does not perform an audit or seek independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives.

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Crypto and/or digital currencies involve substantial risk, are speculative in nature and may not perform as expected. Many digital currency platforms are not subject to regulatory supervision, unlike regulated exchanges. Some platforms may commingle customer assets in shared accounts and provide inadequate custody, which may affect whether or how investors can withdraw their currency and/or subject them to money laundering. Digital currencies may be vulnerable to hacks and cyber fraud as well as significant volatility and price swings.

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