SDM Daily Market Report

Trading Desk Insights

BTC hit $110,000 for the first time since June 11 and is now within striking distance of its $112,000 all-time high, which was recorded on May 22.

U.S. equity and bond markets will be closed tomorrow, July 4, for Independence Day, with traders bracing for lighter volumes and positioning ahead of the holiday.

Fresh economic data this morning showed Non-Farm Employment rising by 147K and Unemployment Claims falling to 233K, pointing to a resilient labor market. The stronger payrolls print makes it less likely the Fed will move to cut rates at its next FOMC meeting, as policymakers remain focused on sticky inflation and robust employment. Looking at the futures market, the market is now pricing in a lower probability of a rate cut for the July 30th meeting as the likelihood dropped from 23.8% to 4.7%.

Ethereum (ETH) is making big moves as it trades near $2,600, fueled by stronger risk sentiment. At 9 a.m., ETH traded at $2,591.16 following the release of employment data, up 5.90% over 24 hours, with daily trading volume rising more than 83% to $25.4 billion. Bitcoin (BTC) held firm at $109,333, gaining 1.67%, while Solana (SOL) climbed to $152.95, up 3.01%.

The rally comes as Tom Lee, the well-known Wall Street strategist, takes over as chairman of Bitmine Immersion Companies and unveils a $250 million plan to build an Ethereum treasury, positioning the miner as a leveraged ETH proxy similar to Michael Saylor’s Strategy Bitcoin play.

Moving on with price action, XRPUSDT looks like it’s about to break above a triangle pattern, advocating for further upside. A break above $2.4 would trigger bullish implications, sending prices higher towards $2.65 and $2.9 in extension. BTC is less than 2% away from record highs but there’s no doubt that we should be able to break that barrier

Looking at the options market, the top strikes for BTC for the end of July expiry remain 115,000 and 120,000. Moving on with XRP, the $3 call strike is the most active. The increased activity in the higher strike calls follows strengthening expectations for a spot ETF debut in the U.S.

With the holiday pause ahead, markets now look to next week’s labor and inflation prints for clues on the Fed’s next move as the second half of 2025 kicks off.

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The News Room

Tom Lee Joins Bitmine, Unveils $250 Million Ethereum Treasury Strategy

Prolific Wall Street strategist and perma bull Tom Lee has stepped in as chairman of Bitmine Immersion Companies (NYSEMKT: BMNR), a Bitcoin mining firm aiming to replicate Strategy’s famed crypto treasury model but with a twist. Instead of Bitcoin, Bitmine will deploy a $250 million private placement to accumulate Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH), the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency. Lee, known for his bold market calls and early crypto advocacy, plans to position Bitmine as a leveraged Ethereum proxy, tapping capital markets to expand its ETH reserves much like Michael Saylor’s Strategy did with Bitcoin. The move highlights a broader shift as crypto-native treasury strategies diversify beyond Bitcoin, setting the stage for Ethereum to gain fresh institutional exposure.

Bitwise CIO Sees Ethereum ETFs Surging in H2 2025

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan is forecasting strong momentum for spot Ethereum ETFs in the second half of 2025, pointing to June’s $1.17 billion in net inflows as a sign of growing institutional interest. The bullish outlook comes as Ethereum cements its role at the center of tokenized finance, with Robinhood recently announcing plans to build “Robinhood Chain” on Arbitrum to power asset ownership. As staking locks nearly 30% of ETH’s supply and Layer-2 adoption surges, analysts say Ethereum’s positioning as a base layer for stablecoins, tokenized stocks, and staking is resonating with traditional investors. ETH climbed 6.49% in the last 24 hours to $2,601, breaking out after 16 hours of tight consolidation. Market watchers now see $2,800 as the next key level, with flows into Ethereum ETFs expected to accelerate as real-world asset tokenization gains pace.

JD.com and Ant Group Back Yuan Stablecoins to Challenge Dollar

China’s tech giants JD.com and Ant Group are lobbying regulators to approve yuan-pegged stablecoins in a bid to counter the U.S. dollar’s lead in digital payments. Both firms have urged the People’s Bank of China to greenlight offshore yuan stablecoins in Hong Kong to boost the yuan’s global use and efficiency in cross-border trade. Ant Group plans to apply for stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong, Singapore, and Luxembourg to expand its blockchain payments network, while JD.com aims to launch its own Hong Kong dollar-backed stablecoin by year-end. The push comes as Chinese exporters increasingly rely on dollar stablecoins like USDT for overseas payments, raising concerns among industry leaders that China risks falling behind if yuan payment rails do not keep pace.

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Crypto Charts

ETF Flow

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Disclaimer

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