July 7, 2023

Markets Insights

Next FOMC meeting: July 26 2023.

  • Probability of a 0bps hike → 5%
  • Probability of a 25bps hike → 95%

The News Room

FOMC Minutes Show Uncertainty, Cautious Optimism. Large Bitcoin Investors Are Taking Divergent Paths

The release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes reveals a mixed sentiment among policymakers, reflecting both uncertainty and cautious optimism. As traditional markets grapple with economic recovery and inflation concerns, large Bitcoin investors are taking different approaches. Some are embracing the potential of Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and diversifying their portfolios, while others are adopting a more cautious stance. This divergence in investment strategies among prominent Bitcoin investors reflects the ongoing evaluation and varied perspectives on the role of cryptocurrencies in the current macroeconomic landscape.


Multichain MPC bridge sees $100M+ outflows, sparking fears of exploit

The Multichain MPC Bridge, a decentralized finance (DeFi) platform, experienced significant outflows amounting to millions of dollars, raising concerns about a potential exploit. The platform, which allows users to transfer assets across different blockchains, faced a vulnerability that led to the outflows. While the exact nature of the exploit is yet to be fully understood, the incident highlights the inherent risks associated with DeFi platforms and the need for robust security measures to protect user funds and maintain the trust of participants in the ecosystem.


Binance senior execs quit over CEO's response to investigations: Fortune

Several senior executives have resigned from Binance, one of the world's largest cryptocurrency exchanges, due to dissatisfaction with the CEO's response to ongoing regulatory investigations. The departures signal internal turmoil within the organization amid increased regulatory scrutiny. As regulatory bodies worldwide focus on crypto exchanges, the leadership's response and actions are crucial for maintaining trust and compliance. This development highlights the challenges faced by industry leaders in navigating the evolving regulatory landscape and underscores the importance of transparent and effective communication during such times.


Lightning Labs releases tools letting AI transact and hold Bitcoin

Lightning Labs, a leading developer of the Lightning Network, has introduced tools that enable artificial intelligence (AI) systems to transact and hold Bitcoin. The integration of Lightning Network functionality with AI systems offers new possibilities for automation and smart contract capabilities in the Bitcoin ecosystem. This development showcases the potential synergy between blockchain technology and AI, paving the way for innovative applications and expanding the utility of cryptocurrencies. It further demonstrates the ongoing advancements in blockchain technology and its ability to integrate with emerging technologies for transformative use cases.



Meta recently introduced a new platform called Threads, remarkably similar to Twitter, and it promptly gained millions of users. On Wednesday, a letter was sent to Meta, Facebook's parent company, from Twitter's legal team, raising some serious concerns. This missive, penned by Alex Spiro, a well-respected attorney known for his work with Elon Musk, accused Meta of the "systematic" and "unlawful" usage of confidential trade secrets in relation to the launch of Threads. Spiro's letter made a pointed assertion that Meta's new platform, which bears a striking resemblance to Twitter, was created by ex-Twitter staff, purposefully engaged to produce an application with a similar interface and functionality.

On the economic data front, nonfarm payrolls increased 209,000 in June, below the consensus estimate for 240,000, taking some steam out of what had been a stunningly strong labor market. That was the slowest month for job creation since payrolls fell by 268,000 in December 2020. Meanwhile, there's a bit of good news on the unemployment front. The rate came down to 3.6%, showing a modest yet positive decrease of 0.1% from the previous data. The sectors leading the charge in job creation were government hiring, followed closely by health care, social assistance, and construction. Wages rose 4.4% from a year ago, slightly higher than expectations.

Looking at the technicals, the S&P500 futures has recently pulled back after a strong jobs number yesterday towards the support level of 4425. This level is important on an intraday basis as it intersects with the 20-day moving average on the daily chart as well as the rising trend line that has been in place since the end of May. A breakdown of 4425 would drag prices lower towards 4370.


Friday ->

  • US Non-Farm Employment
  • Unemployment rate


In June, we noticed a promising uptick in spot volume from our 11 top-notch AA-A graded exchanges. It has climbed by 11.3% compared to May, which brought the total aggregated spot volumes to a robust $320 billion. This is quite notable as it marked the first rise we've seen in three months.

There's still room for growth.

Spot trading volumes on centralized exchanges are, in fact, at historically low levels. To put it into perspective, this quarter has recorded the least volumes since the last quarter of 2019. We remain hopeful and look forward to more exciting developments in the months to come.

BTCUSDT broke below a symmetrical triangle pattern on high volume yesterday and has been trying to rebound ever since. There might be a bit of resistance between 30,400 and 30,900 as the breakdown level usually serves as resistance on the way back up. If the dollar index continues to trade lower then that will serve as breathing room for equities and crypto to trade higher.

We are still tracking the 29,530 support level and 31,300 resistance levels for momentum shifts.

  • BTC > 27,500 → Bullish
  • BTC < 27,500 → Neutral
  • BTC < 24,850 → Bearish


Whale Alert, a service that monitors significant cryptocurrency transactions, has recently reported that wealthy Ethereum (ETH) investors have recently transferred approximately $140 million worth of the top-ranking smart contract platform's assets into major exchanges such as Coinbase, Kraken, and OKX.

ETHUSDT has rebounded off our support level of 1825 and it looks like we’re reaching for the previous breakdown level of 1900 and 1935.

ETHBTC has pulled back from the resistance level we were warning about recently near 0.064 and is now reaching the previous yearly lows near 0.0606

  • ETH > 1910 → Bullish
  • ETH < 1910 → Neutral
  • ETH < 1630 → Bearish

Altcoin Watch - Cardano ADA

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin stated that he does not stake all of his Ether due to multisignature wallets being “complicated in a bunch of ways.”

He explained: “Because if you stake your ETH, the keys that access it have to be public on a subsystem that is online. For safety, it has to be a Multisig. Multisig for staking is still fairly difficult to set up; it gets complicated in a bunch of ways.”

Charles Hoskinson, the co-founder of Ethereum and founder of Cardano, took to Twitter on June 30, stating he is “at a loss for words” after hearing Buterin only stakes a small portion of his Ether. Hoskinson added that “all” of his Cardano ADA is staked.

"I had to listen to this a few times. I'm just at a loss for words. All of our Ada is staked. Guess what that's how it's supposed to be for a properly designed Proof of Stake protocol." - Charles Hodgkinson

ADA/USDT - Since our last visit to the ADA weekly chart, the 0.3000 resistance level was of interest to trigger the continuation to the downside. It has since fallen ~6% after two reactions. If support levels last seen in 2020 are reached, it will be wise to anticipate the formation of bullish structure on the daily chart to pick up ADA at these low levels.


This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.

Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.

The information on which the analysis is based has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable such as, for example, the company’s financial statements filed with a regulator, company website, company white paper, pitchbook and any other sources. While Secure Digital Markets has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable, it does not perform an audit or seek independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives.

Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, Secure Digital Markets does not represent that the report contents meet all of the presentation and/or disclosure standards applicable in the jurisdiction the recipient is located. Secure Digital Markets and their officers, directors and employees shall not be responsible or liable for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses, or opinions within the report.

Crypto and/or digital currencies involve substantial risk, are speculative in nature and may not perform as expected. Many digital currency platforms are not subject to regulatory supervision, unlike regulated exchanges. Some platforms may commingle customer assets in shared accounts and provide inadequate custody, which may affect whether or how investors can withdraw their currency and/or subject them to money laundering. Digital currencies may be vulnerable to hacks and cyber fraud as well as significant volatility and price swings.

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