Risk assets hovered near unchanged levels on Monday, even after the US entered Israel’s war against Iran over the weekend. The reaction in oil markets remained relatively muted, which kept broader risk sentiment in check. The US launched strikes on Saturday targeting Iranian sites in Fordo, Isfahan, and Natanz, catching investors off guard who had expected a more diplomatic path following Trump’s Friday statement that a decision on Iran would come “within the next two weeks.” Markets are now on edge, watching closely for Iran’s response. Traders are hoping Tehran avoids actions that could trigger a full-scale regional conflict or threaten regime stability. A move to target US forces stationed in the region or a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz could send shockwaves through global oil supply chains.
Despite the elevated geopolitical tension, bitcoin continues to shrug off the noise and demonstrate resilience. We remain constructive on BTC but believe SOL has room to outperform in any near-term rebound. ETH has seen some softness in institutional flows, while altcoins broadly remain sidelined amid the latest volatility. Over $1.2 billion in crypto positions were liquidated over the weekend, led by BTC and ETH. Still, the market’s quick bounce highlights traders’ belief that the impact from geopolitical headlines will remain contained.
Meanwhile, Anthony Pompliano’s bitcoin treasury firm ProCap is heading to the public markets through a $1 billion SPAC merger. The firm is not only holding BTC but actively deploying its balance sheet into yield strategies that leverage the growing crypto-financial infrastructure.
Looking ahead, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony to Congress this week will be closely watched for signals on rate policy as political scrutiny mounts.
Investors poured over $1.2 billion into Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs last week, even as geopolitical tensions continue to simmer. Despite concerns about global instability, inflows remained robust—underscoring growing confidence in digital assets as both hedges and strategic portfolio diversifiers amid uncertainty.
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott signed SB 21, enabling the state comptroller to allocate taxpayer funds and surplus revenue to build a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve—potentially funding millions of dollars in BTC purchases from the Rainy Day Fund. At current asset levels ($24–28.5 billion), even a 1–5% allocation could mean tens of thousands of BTC, signaling a bold, state-level embrace well ahead of federal efforts.
Japan’s Metaplanet acquired 1,111 BTC (~$118 million) in just one week—five times the amount added by U.S.-based MicroStrategy ("Strategy") during the same period. With this purchase, Metaplanet’s holdings total 11,111 BTC (avg. cost ~$95.5k/coin), reflecting ~11% of its 2025 target and a current paper gain of ~$60M. Meanwhile, MicroStrategy continues steady accumulation, now holding ~592,345 BTC.
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