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Bitcoin attempted to reclaim bullish momentum yesterday but failed to break above the 20-day moving average near $106,500, which continues to act as a key resistance level. The recent all-time high has triggered a wave of profit-taking, with realized gains in May and June now at their highest levels since February. Order book data shows bids building around $104,000 while offers are stacked near $107,000, creating a tight range that’s capping further upside for now.
Volatility remains compressed as Bitcoin’s DVOL Index is hovering just above 40, one of the lowest prints in over two years. This lack of movement coincides with broader market indecision, as traders wait for BTC dominance to roll over in hopes of igniting a fresh altcoin cycle. On-chain data shows stablecoin reserves on exchanges climbing to multi-year highs, suggesting sidelined capital is poised for re-entry rather than fleeing the market.
ETF flows offered a bright spot. BTC ETFs reversed course with $375.1 million in net inflows, while ETH continued to lead with $109.5 million, marking its 12th consecutive day of inflows. The tone in IBIT options also flipped bullish, with the one-year put-call skew turning negative.
Elsewhere, DEXs handled over $410 billion in May, capturing a record 25% share of global spot volume, outpacing some centralized venues. In the meme coin space, Pumpfun is reportedly seeking a $1B raise at a $4B fully diluted valuation, eyeing a launch in the next two weeks.
In macro, U.S. stock futures gave up gains on Wednesday after private sector hiring fell to its weakest level in over two years. The soft print prompted renewed pressure from Trump, who publicly called on Fed Chair Powell to cut rates. Trump also signaled renewed tensions with China, calling President Xi “extremely hard” to deal with ahead of a potential call later this week. Eyes now turn to Friday’s NFP data for the next read on U.S. labor market momentum.
The News Room
Coinbase CEO fears Bitcoin replaces dollar if US debt grows as Elon Musk calls for firing of 215 Republicans
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has raised concerns that Bitcoin could supplant the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency if the national debt continues to escalate unchecked. He emphasized the importance of fiscal responsibility, stating that while he supports Bitcoin, a strong U.S. economy is crucial for global stability. This sentiment aligns with Elon Musk's recent criticism of a significant spending bill, which he labeled a "disgusting abomination" due to its potential to add $2.5 trillion to the national deficit. Musk's remarks have intensified debates within the Republican Party over fiscal policies and government spending.
Ethereum and XRP steals spotlight in daily gains after Bitcoin reclaimed $106k
In the cryptocurrency market, Ethereum (ETH) and XRP have outperformed Bitcoin in recent gains. While Bitcoin reclaimed the $106,000 mark after an 8% correction from its all-time high of nearly $112,000, Ethereum and XRP recorded daily increases of 3.5% and 5%, respectively. This shift indicates a growing investor interest in altcoins, potentially signaling the onset of a new altcoin cycle.
Pump.fun considering token launch with $4B fully diluted value, $1B sale
Pump.fun, a Solana-based memecoin launchpad, is reportedly planning a token sale aiming to raise $1 billion, which would value the platform at a $4 billion fully diluted valuation. Since its inception in January 2024, Pump.fun has facilitated the launch of nearly 11 million tokens and generated over $723 million in fees. The platform allows users to create tokens instantly and at no initial cost, with a unique bonding curve pricing model that adjusts token prices based on supply and demand.
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
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