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Risk-on sentiment is firmly in play. While U.S.-China structural tensions are far from resolved, the market is reading a clear signal: neither side wants to escalate. That’s been enough to keep the rotation into altcoins alive, lifting ETH and other majors, while BTC holds steady near $103,000. Despite trading just 5% off all-time highs, BTC’s implied volatility—measured by Deribit's DVOL—is sitting near its lowest since June 2024. Historically, that kind of compression tends to precede a sharp move.
Macro tailwinds are building. Global liquidity is rising, and U.S. equities are flirting with all-time highs. A breakout for BTC doesn’t seem far off. That said, funding rates, open interest, and volume have all pulled back over the past week, hinting at a brief reset before the next leg higher.
Traders remain somewhat cautious—dollar strength and lingering geopolitical noise have triggered some profit-taking. Meanwhile, rising yields, typically a headwind, could ironically boost BTC’s narrative. If markets start pricing in long-term fiscal risk under another Trump administration, BTC could benefit as a hedge against sovereign instability and ballooning U.S. debt.
One thing is for sure, sentiment remains strong.
The News Room
US banking authority clears path for crypto services at national banks
The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) has officially authorized national banks and federal savings associations to engage in a broad range of cryptocurrency services, including custody, trading on behalf of clients, and outsourcing digital asset operations. This policy shift, detailed in Interpretive Letters 1183 and 1184, rescinds prior restrictions and aligns with recent actions by the Federal Reserve and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), collectively removing significant regulatory barriers for banks entering the crypto sector. With over 55 million Americans owning digital assets and the global crypto market capitalization exceeding $3.3 trillion, this move positions traditional financial institutions to compete more effectively with fintech and crypto-native firms in offering digital asset services
Tron strengthens grip on USDT, claiming nearly half of its $150B supply
Tether's USDT stablecoin has reached a market capitalization exceeding $150 billion, with the Tron blockchain now hosting nearly 47% of its total supply, surpassing Ethereum. Tron's dominance is attributed to its low transaction fees and ease of account creation, making it particularly attractive in emerging markets. Despite Ethereum's deeper liquidity and integration with real-world assets, Tron's user-friendly features have solidified its position as the leading platform for USDT transactions
SEC punts decision on crypto ETFs again, final rulings anticipated later in 2025
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has once again postponed decisions on several crypto-related exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications, including Grayscale's proposed spot ETFs for Solana (SOL) and Litecoin (LTC), as well as BlackRock's request concerning in-kind redemptions for its approved spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETF. These delays extend the agency's review timeline, with final rulings anticipated no earlier than the fourth quarter of 2025. Notably, the SEC has acknowledged the 19b-4 filing for a 21Shares spot Dogecoin (DOGE) ETF, initiating the official review process for this product. These actions are consistent with the SEC's historical practice of utilizing the full statutory review periods before issuing decisions on crypto ETF applications
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
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