May 2, 2025

Trading Desk Insights


Risk assets caught a bid early Friday after headlines emerged that China is open to trade talks with the U.S., which has been proactively engaging Beijing on the tariff front. The market read this as a possible de-escalation signal, giving equities and crypto a short-term lift.

Bitcoin traders are entering May with caution, aware of the seasonal “Sell in May and go away” pattern that often pressures risk assets. Historically, BTC has mirrored equity markets during this period, showing increased volatility and downside risk. After a sharp rally in April, some are eyeing profit-taking levels, especially with BTC approaching the psychological $100K mark. Liquidity remains strong, supported by institutional flows and speculative interest in alts, but macro headwinds and seasonality could cap upside near-term.

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) posted a $4.2B net loss for Q1, largely driven by a $5.9B unrealized loss on its BTC holdings under new fair value accounting (marking BTC at $82,445). Despite the paper loss, they’re doubling down—announcing a fresh $21B ATM equity offering after nearly maxing out the last raise. The message is clear: they're all-in on Bitcoin.

The April jobs report surprised to the upside with 177K new jobs (vs. 138K expected), pushing back the odds of a near-term Fed cut. The May FOMC meeting is a lock for no move, but June expectations have shifted—no cut odds moved from 41.8% to 60.6% overnight. Traders are recalibrating rate bets quickly.

On the equity side, a pullback in tariff rhetoric helped, but Q1 earnings are doing the heavy lifting. With nearly two-thirds of S&P 500 names reporting, 76% have beaten estimates, helping fuel the latest leg of the rally.

The News Room

Public companies have already acquired 96% of all Bitcoin to be mined in 2025

As of May 1, 2025, publicly listed companies have acquired approximately 157,957 Bitcoin, representing 96% of the 164,250 BTC projected to be mined this year. Including purchases by ETF issuers and private firms, the total accumulation reaches 192,925 BTC, surpassing the annual expected supply by 17%. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) leads with 107,155 BTC acquired in 2025 alone, accounting for nearly two-thirds of public company acquisitions and over 65% of the new supply. This aggressive corporate accumulation is tightening Bitcoin's liquid supply, potentially influencing market dynamics and price stability.

Strategy achieves $5.8B in yearly Bitcoin gains, raises BTC Yield target to 25%

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) reported a $5.8 billion year-to-date gain on its Bitcoin holdings as of April 28, 2025, achieving a 13.7% BTC Yield. The company has raised its full-year BTC Yield target to 25% and its BTC Gain projection to $15 billion. With total holdings of 553,555 BTC acquired at a cumulative cost of $37.9 billion, Strategy continues to expand its Bitcoin-focused investment strategy. Despite an unrealized fair value loss of $5.9 billion in Q1 due to accounting changes, the firm anticipates a fair value gain of approximately $8 billion for Q2, reflecting Bitcoin's price recovery.

Tether boosts US Treasury holdings by $3B amid YoY profit drop

​Tether has increased its holdings of U.S. Treasuries by over $3 billion, bringing its total exposure to approximately $120 billion as of March 31, 2025. This move underscores the company's strategy to back its USDT stablecoin with low-risk, short-term government instruments. Despite this, Tether reported a significant year-over-year decline in quarterly profits, posting $1 billion in Q1 2025 compared to $4.52 billion in the same period last year. The drop is attributed to stable Treasury yields and a downturn in Bitcoin prices. Nevertheless, Tether's total assets stand at $149.3 billion, with $5.6 billion in excess reserves, and the USDT supply expanded by $7 billion during the quarter, reflecting ongoing adoption, particularly in emerging markets and on-chain finance applications.

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Disclaimer

This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.

Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.

The information on which the analysis is based has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable such as, for example, the company’s financial statements filed with a regulator, company website, company white paper, pitchbook and any other sources. While Secure Digital Markets has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable, it does not perform an audit or seek independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives.

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Crypto and/or digital currencies involve substantial risk, are speculative in nature and may not perform as expected. Many digital currency platforms are not subject to regulatory supervision, unlike regulated exchanges. Some platforms may commingle customer assets in shared accounts and provide inadequate custody, which may affect whether or how investors can withdraw their currency and/or subject them to money laundering. Digital currencies may be vulnerable to hacks and cyber fraud as well as significant volatility and price swings.

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