May 6, 2025

Trading Desk Insights


BTC continues to consolidate in a narrow band between $93K and $96K, lacking directional momentum as markets wait for a macro catalyst. ETH is treading water near $1,800 and SOL is holding steady at $145. Altcoins are starting to fade — many tagged local highs last week and are now rolling over. Memecoins are falling out of favor, with capital rotating toward names with better fundamentals and tokenomics like SUI and TAO. Crypto flows remain muted and broader risk markets appear largely indifferent to tariff headlines, leaving the space in a holding pattern. A dovish Fed pivot or a shift in trade sentiment could be the trigger for the next leg higher. In the meantime, U.S. spot BTC ETFs have quietly posted three consecutive days of net inflows totaling $1.5B — a constructive signal under the surface.

The Fed is expected to hold rates steady this Wednesday, but all eyes will be on Powell’s tone and forward guidance. Trade tensions continue to cast a shadow. Fresh supply chain data shows the impact of Trump-era tariffs rippling through U.S. ports, with agriculture hit hardest as global manufacturers pull back. Paul Tudor Jones added to the caution, warning that equities could set new lows even if tariffs are reduced to 50%, calling it the largest tax hike since the 1960s.

The News Room

State of Florida withdraws Bitcoin reserve bills amid growing countrywide setbacks

Florida has officially withdrawn its proposed Bitcoin reserve bills—House Bill 487 and Senate Bill 550—marking a significant setback in state-level crypto adoption efforts. These bills aimed to authorize the state to invest up to 10% of certain public funds into Bitcoin. Despite initial bipartisan support, both bills were indefinitely postponed and withdrawn from consideration on May 3, failing to advance beyond the committee stage. This move aligns Florida with at least eight other states, including Arizona, Montana, and Pennsylvania, that have recently abandoned similar initiatives. While the legislative session has been extended until June 6 for budget discussions, insiders suggest that crypto-related proposals may still resurface during these negotiations. Nonetheless, the broader trend indicates growing caution among U.S. states regarding the integration of digital assets into public financial strategies.

XRP trading volume steady at $3.2B in Q1, but XRPL activity contracts sharply

In Q1 2025, XRP's average daily trading volume remained robust at approximately $3.2 billion, positioning it just behind Bitcoin and Ethereum in terms of liquidity. This stability in trading activity occurred despite a notable 37% decline in on-chain transactions on the XRP Ledger (XRPL), which totaled 105.5 million for the quarter. Additionally, new wallet creations dropped by 40% to 423,727. The decrease in on-chain activity is attributed to broader market slowdowns and profit-taking behaviors following XRP's price surge to a multi-year high of $3.40 in early February, before settling at $2.09 by the end of March. Despite these on-chain contractions, XRP's trading volume resilience underscores sustained institutional and retail interest, particularly in stablecoin pairs like USDT. Furthermore, Ripple's USD stablecoin, RLUSD, achieved a market cap exceeding $90 million, with over $300 million in cumulative decentralized trading volume, indicating continued engagement in XRP's ecosystem

President Trump confirms May 22 gala dinner for top TRUMP holders

President Donald Trump has confirmed a gala dinner on May 22 at Trump National Golf Club in Washington, D.C., exclusively for the top 220 holders of his TRUMP memecoin. Eligibility is determined by a leaderboard tracking time-weighted average balances from April 23 to May 12. The top 25 wallets will receive VIP access, including a photo opportunity with Trump and a guided tour. All attendees will also receive a commemorative NFT minted on Solana. Participants must cover their own travel and lodging expenses, and eligibility excludes nationals from OFAC-sanctioned jurisdictions.

Crypto Charts

ETF Flow

Disclaimer

This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.

Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.

The information on which the analysis is based has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable such as, for example, the company’s financial statements filed with a regulator, company website, company white paper, pitchbook and any other sources. While Secure Digital Markets has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable, it does not perform an audit or seek independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives.

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Crypto and/or digital currencies involve substantial risk, are speculative in nature and may not perform as expected. Many digital currency platforms are not subject to regulatory supervision, unlike regulated exchanges. Some platforms may commingle customer assets in shared accounts and provide inadequate custody, which may affect whether or how investors can withdraw their currency and/or subject them to money laundering. Digital currencies may be vulnerable to hacks and cyber fraud as well as significant volatility and price swings.

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