November 23, 2023

Markets Insights

Economic Calendar

Next FOMC meeting: Dec 13th 2023

  • Probability of a 0bps hike → 95%
  • Probability of a 25bps hike → 5%

The News Room

Grayscale Files Updated Bitcoin ETF Prospectus Days after Talks with U.S. SEC

Following ongoing discussions and feedback from the regulatory body, Grayscale Investments has amended its S-3 filing for a spot Bitcoin ETF with the SEC. This update comes after a memo revealed a meeting between Grayscale, the SEC’s Division of Trading and Markets, and the law firm Davis Polk, indicating active engagement regarding the ETF listing on NYSE Arca. Grayscale's unique proposal involves converting its existing Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into an ETF, which differs from other spot Bitcoin ETF applications. A court victory earlier this year forced the SEC to reconsider Grayscale's application after an initial dismissal attempt. Currently, GBTC is trading at a sub-10% discount to its net asset value, reflecting the gap between the market price and the underlying Bitcoin value it represents.

Austria’s Raiffeisen Bank to Roll Out Crypto Trading for Retail Customers in January

Raiffeisen Bank in Austria is gearing up to launch cryptocurrency trading services for its retail customers by the end of January 2024, starting with its customer base in Vienna. This venture is in collaboration with Bitpanda, a Vienna-based cryptocurrency exchange, and aims to cater to digitally savvy customers interested in small-scale investments. Bitpanda's platform, regulated by Austrian and German financial authorities, will be integrated into Raiffeisen's app, offering a seamless and secure trading experience similar to traditional banking operations. The move signals growing crypto adoption in regions with clear regulatory frameworks and represents Raiffeisen Bank's commitment to innovative digital banking solutions.

South Korea to Pilot CBDC with 100,000 Citizens in 2024

South Korea is set to initiate a pilot for a central bank digital currency (CBDC) in early next year, involving 100,000 participants who will use CBDC tokens issued by commercial banks to purchase goods. This restricted-use pilot, potentially taking place in Jeju, Busan, or Incheon, is a collaborative effort by the Bank of Korea, Financial Services Commission, and Financial Supervisory Service. The initiative aims to explore the benefits of CBDCs in overcoming challenges associated with current government-issued grant systems, such as high fees and fraud risks, while adapting to the global shift toward digital payment preferences. South Korea's progress follows China's significant advancements with its digital yuan and positions the country at the forefront of CBDC development.

Trading Desk Insights

The Thanksgiving Day holiday brings with it a closure of the stock market, resulting in US banks halting the processing of USD transactions. While banks resume normal operations on Friday, the stock market will operate on a half-day schedule.

Turning our attention to Bitcoin, it is currently undergoing a retracement from the upper bounds of its trend channel, as observed on the 4-hour timeframe. This established pattern has held since October 24th, leading us to anticipate a continued short-term decline towards the 36,500 level. Given the stock market's closure, we do not anticipate significant volatility in the cryptocurrency markets today.

In recent days, Uniswap (UNI) has witnessed a remarkable surge, with a gain of over 30% in just two days. This surge has propelled its market capitalization to $4.8 billion, surpassing Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and elevating the DeFi market to its highest point in 14 months.

Meanwhile, the market capitalization of BONK, a Solana meme coin launched in January, has experienced an astounding increase of over 1,800% in the past four weeks. This surge has outshone both SOL and BTC by a considerable margin. However, caution may be warranted, as the recent listing of BONK perpetual contracts with 50x leverage on Binance could potentially signify an impending market top. Historically, such listings have facilitated easier selling for traders, often marking price peaks.

Technical Charts


This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.

Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.

The information on which the analysis is based has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable such as, for example, the company’s financial statements filed with a regulator, company website, company white paper, pitchbook and any other sources. While Secure Digital Markets has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable, it does not perform an audit or seek independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives.

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Crypto and/or digital currencies involve substantial risk, are speculative in nature and may not perform as expected. Many digital currency platforms are not subject to regulatory supervision, unlike regulated exchanges. Some platforms may commingle customer assets in shared accounts and provide inadequate custody, which may affect whether or how investors can withdraw their currency and/or subject them to money laundering. Digital currencies may be vulnerable to hacks and cyber fraud as well as significant volatility and price swings.

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