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Risk assets are trying to build on Friday’s bounce after New York Fed President John Williams hinted the central bank could start easing as soon as December. Williams said the labor market now poses more downside risk than inflation, and traders jumped on it. Rate cut odds for December have ripped from 42% a week ago to 76% this morning, giving markets a reason to breathe again.
Bitcoin’s still coming off a rough stretch. It’s on track for its worst week since March, with U.S. demand indicators showing some strain. The Coinbase premium has recovered from a -$140 gap to around -$50, but that lingering discount versus offshore markets says U.S. institutions are still hesitant. Spot BTC ETFs told the same story last week, with record $40 billion in volume led by IBIT and heavy redemptions across the board. The selling wave pushed most ETF holders underwater, with the average entry above $90K.
Friday finally flipped that script with $238 million of inflows, the biggest since early November, helping ETFs notch a record $11.5 billion trading day. That kind of high-volume washout often marks local bottoms, though it’s too early to call. BTC looks like it’s trying to find footing in the low $80Ks, helped by cleaner positioning and signs of exhaustion rather than panic. The rebound off $80K coincided with a sharp uptick in the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio, showing more aggressive spot-side buying pressure.
Equities opened the week on a mixed note, with traders trying to claw back some ground into the Thanksgiving stretch. The S&P 500 fell 2% last week, down 3.5% for November, while the Nasdaq’s off more than 6% for the month as the AI trade cools. Thin volumes and a quiet macro calendar could keep volatility elevated into the December Fed meeting.
Meanwhile, Dogecoin caught a bid ahead of today’s launch of Grayscale’s DOGE ETF (ticker GDOG), as retail looks for something to chase after last week’s washout.
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
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Crypto and/or digital currencies involve substantial risk, are speculative in nature and may not perform as expected. Many digital currency platforms are not subject to regulatory supervision, unlike regulated exchanges. Some platforms may commingle customer assets in shared accounts and provide inadequate custody, which may affect whether or how investors can withdraw their currency and/or subject them to money laundering. Digital currencies may be vulnerable to hacks and cyber fraud as well as significant volatility and price swings.
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