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Bitcoin and the broader market carried Friday’s energy into Monday with a clean continuation higher. Altcoins led the move, with ETH, XRP, and SUI showing the most momentum while BTC lagged slightly. After weeks of macro drag, traders finally had some breathing room as yields eased and the dollar cooled. Even crypto equities caught a bid, hinting that the forced-selling phase may be behind us for now. Conditions look set for a stretch of consolidation rather than another leg lower.
With leverage mostly flushed and activity now spot-led, the tape feels healthier but slower. A sharp squeeze is possible, though the more likely path is a grind higher. Funding rates flipped negative for the first time in a month, showing too many traders leaning short, which could set up a pop if spot keeps firm. That said, the broader structure is still heavy, with lower highs and lower lows since early October. A few big green days wouldn’t break the downtrend just yet. Heading into Thanksgiving, liquidity will thin out and appetite for new risk should fade.
ETF flows told a mixed story. Some investors rotated into gold and other defensive assets as consumer sentiment slid to multi-year lows per the University of Michigan survey. Still, the first net inflows in several days for BTC and ETH ETFs hint at quiet accumulation and maybe the start of a shift in tone.
In options, BTC put skews remain tilted to the downside, but the spread versus calls has narrowed. Traders are still hedging tail risk, yet open interest in the $100K call has jumped to about $2 billion, matching the $80K and $85K puts. That interest suggests the market hasn’t given up on upside optionality even in a choppy tape.
Macro traders are watching the Fed path closely. Rate futures now imply over an 83% chance of a 25bp cut in December, up sharply from about 50% a week ago. New York Fed’s John Williams opened the door to cuts “in the near term,” and San Francisco Fed’s Mary Daly echoed the same tone Monday, citing labor market softening. Her alignment with Powell adds weight to that message.
Separately, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Tuesday he expects President Trump to announce the next Fed chair by the holiday season.
Crypto Charts
ETF Flow
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
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