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Bitcoin’s showing classic bottom signals as short-term holders throw in the towel. The Short-Term Holder SOPR dropped to 0.94 earlier this week with price hovering near 85K. Anything below 1.0 means recent buyers are selling at a loss, usually marking exhaustion rather than deeper structural weakness. These flushes tend to line up with local lows and fast recoveries once the weak hands are out.
A broad rebound in risk helped BTC pop back to 89K Monday night before settling near 86K on Tuesday morning, and we’ve basically chopped between those bands since. Funding’s cooled off and open interest has been cleaned out, showing that most of the leverage has already been flushed.
Texas made a small but symbolic move, picking up $5 million worth of BTC ETFs as it lays groundwork for its planned Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Early days, but notable to see a state government starting to build direct crypto exposure.
Macro side, traders are watching for signals on the Fed’s next move. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said there’s a “very good chance” Trump announces the next Fed chair before Christmas. Bloomberg floated Kevin Hassett as the frontrunner, a pick seen as more likely to lean dovish and favor lower rates.
Equities have had a rough November but are trying to claw back some losses. The S&P is off roughly 4% from the late October highs, well short of a full-blown correction. Dip buyers haven’t gone away, but there’s still no clear catalyst to push back toward the highs.
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
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