November 29, 2023

Markets Insights

Economic Calendar

Next FOMC meeting: Dec 13th 2023

  • Probability of a 0bps hike → 98%
  • Probability of a 25bps hike → 2%

The News Room

SEC Accelerates Review Timeline for Franklin Templeton's Bitcoin ETF Application

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has unexpectedly moved up its review timeline for Franklin Templeton's Bitcoin ETF application, initially set for January 1, 2024. This early action, diverging from the previously extended deadline, suggests that the SEC is giving Franklin Templeton additional time to update its filing, notably the S-1 form, which it hasn't yet revised. This lack of update makes Franklin the only applicant in this round not to have submitted revised documentation. Industry analysts speculate that this could be a strategic move by the SEC, potentially setting the stage for a series of approvals in early January, including that of Hashdex.

The SEC's focus remains on thorough evaluation to ensure investor protection and market stability, with particular attention to preventing market manipulation. Other applicants, like BlackRock and Fidelity Investments, have already addressed these concerns in their updated filings. The ongoing debate centers on whether the SEC should approve a spot Bitcoin ETF given its approval of futures-based Bitcoin ETFs, as both types rely on the same underlying markets for price determination.

Jack Dorsey Leads $6.2 Million Seed Round for Decentralized Bitcoin Mining Pool OCEAN

Mummolin, Inc. has successfully secured $6.2 million in seed funding, led by Block CEO Jack Dorsey, to launch OCEAN, a decentralized Bitcoin mining pool aimed at enhancing miners' autonomy and decentralization in the industry. The funding round, which included contributions from Accomplice, Barefoot Bitcoin Fund, MoonKite, NewLayer Capital, and the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund, was announced at the Future of Bitcoin Mining Conference.

OCEAN, operating from a repurposed hydroelectric dam in South Carolina, is designed to be non-custodial, transparent, and permissionless, addressing the centralization issues in mining pools. Co-founded by Luke Dashjr, a prominent Bitcoin Core developer, OCEAN represents a new era in mining pools, enabling direct miner compensation from Bitcoin, and is set to introduce more decentralization improvements in 2024. This initiative is seen as a significant move against the dominance of centralized mining pools such as AntPool and Foundry USA, providing much-needed diversity and robustness to the Bitcoin mining ecosystem.

Animoca Brands Invests in TON Network, Becomes Largest Validator

Animoca Brands, a venture capital firm specializing in gaming and the metaverse, has recently invested in the TON ecosystem and has become the largest validator on the TON blockchain. Based in Hong Kong, Animoca Brands is actively supporting the development of third-party gaming projects within the TON ecosystem, particularly through TON Play, the network's gaming infrastructure project. This investment aligns with TON's recent endorsement by Telegram in September as its preferred blockchain for Web3-related developments, providing TON-based projects with access to Telegram's substantial user base of 800 million. This move by Animoca Brands signifies a strategic expansion into the growing intersection of blockchain technology and gaming within the broader context of the metaverse.

Trading Desk Insights

Stock futures experienced a modest uptick on Wednesday, driven by the lingering optimism that the Federal Reserve has concluded its cycle of raising benchmark interest rates. Additionally, traders endeavored to capitalize on the already robust gains witnessed throughout the month. Notably, the major market indices are poised for impressive monthly performance, with the S&P 500 posting an 8.6% surge in November, while the Nasdaq exhibited an even more remarkable 11.1% climb.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller's remarks on Tuesday underscored the perception that the current monetary policy is suitably restrictive to temper inflation and guide it back to the central bank's 2% target. These comments bolstered investor confidence and uplifted risk assets.

The outlook from Fed funds futures pricing indicates the potential for a rate cut by the central bank, possibly as early as the approaching spring, as indicated by the CME FedWatch Tool.

Shifting our attention to economic data, the second estimate of U.S. GDP for Q3 surpassed expectations by registering a 5.2% growth rate, further highlighting the resilience of the economy.

Turning to the cryptocurrency landscape, Bitcoin has been exhibiting a trading pattern characterized by a rising wedge, featuring ascending lows and notable selling pressure around the $38,000 threshold. Recent developments indicate an uptick in trading volume and liquidations. Meanwhile, ETHBTC has retraced marginally, converging towards its recent lows, as Bitcoin's strength appears to outpace Ethereum's momentum.

In the world of traditional banking, the prominent institution Standard Chartered has reaffirmed its earlier prediction from April, asserting that Bitcoin is poised to attain a value of $100,000 by the conclusion of 2024. This optimistic forecast hinges on several catalysts, including the anticipated approval of numerous BTC and ETH spot ETFs, paving the way for institutional investments. Additionally, the forthcoming Bitcoin halving event in 2024, expected to restrict supply and drive price appreciation, is a key factor in this outlook.

Notably, the XRP community is embracing recent news involving HSBC, one of the globe's largest banks, collaborating with Metaco, the Swiss digital asset custody firm recently acquired by Ripple. Ripple has diligently pursued partnerships with financial institutions, focusing on streamlining processes like cross-border payments through its efficient scalability features. Following Ripple's resolution of its dispute with the SEC, there is growing anticipation of more partnerships with financial entities in the future, especially as these institutions join the trend of tokenization.

Technical Charts


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