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Crypto is bucking the broader risk tone this morning after a slide toward 105,500, with forced sellers doing most of the talking. About 570 million in crypto longs were blown out in the past hour and roughly 1.12 billion over the past 24 hours. The tape in BTC looks like classic Asia session distribution, larger wallets leaning on the bid while liquidity thins. We have seen steady spot selling through October, yet exchange inflows have cooled in the past few days, which takes some pressure off the downside and helps explain the chop after the flush.
Seasonals are the wildcard. October 2025 went from early month euphoria to one of the weakest Octobers in more than a decade, capped by more than 10 billion in liquidations. November has been BTC’s best month on average, with mean returns north of 40% across the past ten years. Equities tend to rhyme, the S and P 500 averages close to a 2% gain in November, historically the strongest month for that benchmark. No guarantee this time, but if positioning is cleaner after the washout, seasonality has room to matter.
Liquidity is the other lever. The government shutdown has gummed up the data calendar and kept traders flying by price and microstructure. The playbook many are watching is simple, a Treasury General Account drawdown would put cash back into the system, China’s central bank remains accommodative, and the eventual slowing of Fed balance sheet runoff adds to the drip. If and when the shutdown ends and the TGA starts releasing funds, that is the window where BTC’s strength could reassert, particularly if funding normalizes and basis stabilizes.
On corporates, Animoca Brands plans a Nasdaq listing via a reverse merger with Currenc Group, another sign that crypto native firms still want public market access even as issuance windows remain narrow. Reverse mergers are faster and cheaper than a traditional IPO, though they usually come with thinner research coverage and patchier liquidity out of the gate.
Macro calendar is light because of the shutdown, including a delayed monthly jobs report, so markets are trading headlines and liquidity pockets rather than hard data. One to watch on policy, the Supreme Court is set to hear arguments on the legality of the Trump era tariffs, a ruling down the line could ripple through inflation expectations and risk appetite.
Net, the market got cleaned out, whales pushed in Asia hours, then the flow dried up, which sets the stage for a range with a seasonal tailwind if liquidity cooperates. Keep an eye on exchange netflows, funding, and spot to perps basis for the first signs that buyers are ready to lean back in.
Crypto Charts
ETF Flow
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
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