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Markets still feel a little heavy, but you can almost smell a rebound brewing. Friday’s leverage purge reset the board. Toss in the backdrop of dovish policy expectations, healthy institutional appetite, and looming ETF catalysts, you get a setup that’s ripe for accumulation.
BTC tried to claw back from the recent lows near $110,000, but was slapped back at the 61.8% Fib at $113,600 before revisiting the lows. If these lows hold, we’re eyeing a shot back toward the highs around $116,000.
Interestingly, Deribit BTC options are tilting toward downside protection, puts are commanding a premium over calls, even out to March 2026.
Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) are disappointing so far. BTC is up 23% YTD, yet names like MicroStrategy, GameStop, and Trump Media are dragging. Only a couple like Japan’s Metaplanet, Twenty One Capital punch above their weight.
Trade risk is in the driver’s seat. Treasury Secretary Bessent is optimistic on China and says lines of communication are open. Until trade war ambiguity clears, we see risk assets drifting sideways with a bullish tilt.
On the Fed front, Powell dropped hints that QT may be nearing its end and rate cuts could come. Since 2022 the balance sheet wound down from $9T to $6.6T.
Stocks tried to rally Wednesday after stronger-than-expected earnings, but the mood soured after Trump threatened China with a cooking oil embargo in retaliation for its soy import stance.
And in headline shocker news: DOJ seized over $14B in BTC, the largest crypto seizure ever. The Cambodian-based Prince Group got hit with a U.S. criminal indictment, accused of running pig-butchering operations.
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
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