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Risk assets caught a bid Friday after a softer inflation print nudged rate cut hopes higher. CPI rose 0.3% month over month and 3.0% year over year, a small beat versus 0.4% and 3.1%. Equities and crypto popped on the headline, then gave some back as the move faded.
Under the hood, crypto still looks tired. Spot volumes are light, and BTC options on Deribit keep a steady put skew that speaks to cautious positioning. Fnding across majors sits near flat, which says the market is balanced but not chasing. Alts found a bid with oversold names like SOL, XRP, and HYPE grabbing traction.
Prediction markets are suddenly front and center. Polymarket is in early talks on a raise that could value the platform between $12 billion and $15 billion, roughly 10x its June mark near $1 billion. Rival Kalshi is also in the market, reportedly targeting a valuation above $10 billion after raising $300 million at about $5 billion earlier this month.
Elsewhere, hedge fund assets hit a fresh all time high near $5 trillion, powered by third quarter allocations and positive returns. Hedge Fund Research flagged the biggest quarterly net inflow since the third quarter of 2007.
On the policy tape, President Trump said he terminated all US trade negotiations with Canada over an allegedly fake advertisement that features former President Ronald Reagan criticizing tariffs.
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
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