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BTC dipped into the US equity open, sliding to 121,700 before reversing hard into 124,200. That tagged the 61.8% Fib retrace from last week’s high, which held like a brick wall. Sellers stepped back in, and we round-tripped to 121,100. As of this morning, price is back on the bounce with open interest and volume ticking up a bit of confidence returning to the tape.
SOL’s still the outperformer on the board. SOLETH rallied 6.5% and CME open interest in SOL futures hit a new record at $2.16B, as traders position ahead of ETF news. ETH’s hanging in but lagging a bit. Meanwhile, DXY and US 10Y yields are grinding higher again, which could keep risk assets, including BTC, under pressure if that continues.
The latest Fed minutes showed a clear split. The committee leaned 10-9 toward cutting rates twice more this year, but they’re walking a tightrope. Concern is growing about the labor market cooling off while inflation remains sticky. The base case remains a slow path back to 2%, but the tone felt less certain than in prior meetings.
Elsewhere, Luxembourg’s sovereign wealth fund made headlines with a 1% allocation to Bitcoin ETFs, becoming the first Eurozone state-level fund to step in. They’ve got the green light to go up to 15% in alternatives, so this could be a toe in the water.
Arthur Hayes is back with another thesis, this time saying the old four-year BTC cycle is dead. He argues the real driver wasn’t halving mechanics but global liquidity and with central banks turning dovish again, the macro tailwind is blowing. His take: the bull trend has legs, regardless of what the old playbook says.
And in a big win for access, the UK has scrapped its ban on crypto ETNs. Retail investors can now hold BTC and ETH exposure in pension and ISA accounts, and do it tax-free.
Crypto Charts
ETF Flow
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
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