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Bitcoin slipped to $113,000 on Wednesday as traders took profit from local highs near $116,000, diverging from U.S. equities that climbed to fresh records ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. The move reflected a “volatile retest” within Bitcoin’s broader trading range, with $114,500 eyed for a weekly close confirmation and $111,000 serving as key near-term support. Futures open interest held firm, while funding rates remained balanced, signaling cautious positioning rather than heavy selling pressure.
The broader market showed mixed sentiment. Equities rallied, with the S&P 500 reaching an all-time high of 6,914, supported by optimism over a potential U.S. and China trade truce and expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut. The decision is widely seen as a modest catalyst, yet expectations for easier policy have maintained supportive conditions across risk assets, including crypto.
Bitcoin’s October “golden week” rally lost momentum after a strong start. Historically, BTC gains around 7 percent during this seasonal window, but this year’s advance has slowed to about 4.5 percent, with the price pulling back after briefly touching $116,000. Despite the softer performance, broader market models still point toward a potential year-end climb toward $160,000 if liquidity remains favorable and institutional inflows persist.
In derivatives, leverage conditions remain stable, with funding and open interest reflecting steady participation. The 21-week EMA near $111,000 continues to act as a technical pivot, while volatility has clustered around $116,000, where more than $270 million in liquidations recently occurred.
Market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic heading into the Fed’s announcement. With expectations of easing policy, improving trade sentiment, and consistent institutional demand through ETFs and corporate treasuries, Bitcoin’s broader uptrend remains intact despite short-term volatility.
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
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Crypto and/or digital currencies involve substantial risk, are speculative in nature and may not perform as expected. Many digital currency platforms are not subject to regulatory supervision, unlike regulated exchanges. Some platforms may commingle customer assets in shared accounts and provide inadequate custody, which may affect whether or how investors can withdraw their currency and/or subject them to money laundering. Digital currencies may be vulnerable to hacks and cyber fraud as well as significant volatility and price swings.
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