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Bitcoin is entering September with cautious optimism. Historically its weakest month, averaging –3.77% returns across 12 years, September has long carried the “red September” reputation thanks to regulatory shocks like China’s ICO ban in 2017 and mining ban in 2021. But Bitcoin has defied the trend for two years in a row, including its strongest September ever in 2024 with a +7.29% gain. With BTC steady near $112,300, traders are watching whether a dovish Fed and ongoing spot ETF inflows can fuel a third straight green September. Key resistance sits at $116K, with $109K acting as first support.
Institutional flows are tilting back toward Bitcoin. Spot BTC ETFs recorded $332.7 million in inflows Tuesday, led by Fidelity ($132.7M) and BlackRock ($72.8M). In contrast, Ethereum ETFs saw $135 million in outflows, reversing August’s $3.87B inflow spree. Analysts note Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative is regaining traction as gold prices hit record highs, with institutions favoring BTC as a safe-haven hedge during macro uncertainty.
Ethereum faces near-term headwinds. ETH has slipped toward $4,470 as treasury firms rotate capital and profit-taking accelerates. Fidelity’s Ether fund shed nearly $100M in a single day, while Bitwise’s ETHW lost $24M. Despite this, ETH remains structurally strong, with $4,700 flagged as the breakout trigger for any renewed push toward the $5,200–$5,500 zone.
DeFi lending is breaking out as RWAs and stablecoins drive inflows. Total value locked in decentralized lending protocols has surged 72% year-to-date, climbing from $53B to $127B, according to Binance Research. Institutional adoption of tokenized assets and stablecoins is accelerating the trend, reinforcing DeFi as one of 2025’s standout growth sectors.
Macro and regulatory catalysts remain central. Investors are eyeing the Sept. 16–17 FOMC meeting, where another rate cut is widely expected following Powell’s dovish Jackson Hole remarks. Meanwhile, the SEC and CFTC issued a joint statement clarifying that US and foreign exchanges can list spot crypto products, including leveraged offerings, marking another step toward regulatory clarity in US markets
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
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Crypto and/or digital currencies involve substantial risk, are speculative in nature and may not perform as expected. Many digital currency platforms are not subject to regulatory supervision, unlike regulated exchanges. Some platforms may commingle customer assets in shared accounts and provide inadequate custody, which may affect whether or how investors can withdraw their currency and/or subject them to money laundering. Digital currencies may be vulnerable to hacks and cyber fraud as well as significant volatility and price swings.
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